{"id":2200269,"date":"2023-02-27T10:35:01","date_gmt":"2023-02-27T10:35:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200269"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:09:37","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:09:37","slug":"why-potential-war-in-taiwan-could-delay-transfer-of-wartime-authority-to-seoul","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/02\/why-potential-war-in-taiwan-could-delay-transfer-of-wartime-authority-to-seoul\/","title":{"rendered":"Why potential war in Taiwan could delay transfer of wartime authority to Seoul"},"content":{"rendered":"

Following Japan and Australia, <\/span>two<\/span><\/a> successive<\/span><\/a> ROK administrations have signed onto joint statements with the U.S. emphasizing the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. This represents a <\/span>significant shift<\/span><\/a> from the language and emphases used in prior statements.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, unlike <\/span>Japan<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Australia<\/span><\/a>, the U.S. and South Korea have yet to emphasize operational or contingency planning for a Taiwan scenario. This lack of planning has led to a debate between those who think the Korean Peninsula should <\/span>heavily factor<\/span><\/a> into a potential Taiwan conflict and those who argue that the North Korean threat <\/span>requires<\/span><\/a> the full focus of the U.S.-ROK alliance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is debatable how a hypothetical Taiwan contingency will implicate the alliance and how the two countries should respond. Regardless, the increasing Chinese threat to Taiwan will likely impact the U.S.-ROK alliance directly by slowing down plans for transferring wartime operational control (OPCON).<\/span><\/p>\n

The three main issues are shifting expectations for U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), higher thresholds for transferring OPCON and revising operational plans (OPLANs) to include contingency planning for Taiwan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

SHIFTING EXPECTATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

USFK Commander Paul LaCamera envisions a more significant role for his forces in a hypothetical conflict between Beijing and Taipei.<\/span><\/p>\n

In\u00a0his May 2021 Senate confirmation hearing, LaCamera\u2019s written testimony defined his intent to pursue a <\/span>more significant role<\/span><\/a> for USFK outside the peninsula to meet regional challenges. In Sept. 2022, he again made headlines for comments about the possibility of a <\/span>contingency plan<\/span><\/a> to cope with threats to Taiwan. The outlet <\/span>Taiwan News <\/span><\/i>reported that this was the first time an incumbent USFK commander publicly addressed a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Outside these statements, the joint U.S.-ROK military <\/span>communique<\/span><\/a> from their annual Security Consultative Meeting in 2021 included Taiwan for the first time, and their latest such meeting in November continued that trend. The yearly Security Consultative Meetings are the forum in which the two countries\u2019 top defense officials review progress and affirm conditions for the transfer of operational control and assess and update operational plans, so the new references to Taiwan bear consideration in how they may impact the Conditions-based OPCON Transition Plan (COTP).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

HIGHER THRESHOLDS<\/b><\/p>\n

A <\/span>critical condition<\/span><\/a> that the ROK must meet before wartime OPCON is fully transitioned to the Future Combined Forces Command is securing critical ROK and alliance military capabilities for \u201cthe security environment on the Korean Peninsula and in the region [to be] conducive to a stable OPCON transition,\u201d according to past allied agreements.<\/span><\/p>\n

The condition implies that the ROK will assume wartime OPCON only when military capabilities can meet the more demanding requirements of a worsening threat environment. The <\/span>growing threat<\/span><\/a> from the DPRK notwithstanding, as China\u2019s aggressive actions in the <\/span>South<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>East<\/span><\/a> China Seas and against <\/span>Taiwan<\/span><\/a> continue destabilizing the region, thresholds for military capabilities deemed COTP sufficient will likely increase.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. and South Korea\u2019s <\/span>inability to complete<\/span><\/a> a bilateral assessment of critical ROK military capabilities and alliance comprehensive response capabilities in time for last year\u2019s Security Consultative Meeting highlighted the difficulty of reaching such thresholds. As the security environments in the region and the peninsula grow more tightly linked, the allies will likely evaluate the defense capabilities necessary to meet COTP conditions concerning threats beyond those solely represented by the DPRK.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

ROK-US combined air training, Nov. 19, 2022 | Image: Facebook<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR TAIWAN<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Security Consultative Meeting in 2021 committed to updating the two nations\u2019 current <\/span>OPLAN 5015<\/span><\/a>. According to last year\u2019s meeting <\/span>statement<\/span><\/a>, the process remains ongoing. The new Strategic Planning Guidance informs these updates to the OPLAN announced in 2021, which is based on changes to the strategic environment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although OPLANs have historically focused on effectively deterring and responding to DPRK threats, it is plausible that updates will factor in a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This makes sense, given the probability that a <\/span>Taiwan conflict<\/span><\/a> would impact the <\/span>security situation<\/span><\/a> on the peninsula in any number of hypothetical scenarios.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the focus on deterring and defeating DPRK aggression is <\/span>unlikely to face<\/span><\/a> significant upheaval, the complexity of the current security environment demands greater flexibility in U.S.-ROK operational planning.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

EVOLVING ALLIANCE<\/b><\/p>\n

Fundamentally, OPCON transfer rests on meeting the conditions necessary to guarantee the successful transition in leadership of the U.S.-ROK military command structure. <\/span>As argued elsewhere<\/span><\/a>, leading the alliance\u2019s command architecture on the peninsula means that Seoul must take regional and multinational planning and operations more seriously.<\/span><\/p>\n

The increasing threat to Taiwan complicates factors for a smooth and timely OPCON transfer, a process that has already experienced numerous delays. Yet ensuring the Future Combined Forces Command inherits the right operational plans and capabilities to respond to the security environment effectively is paramount to ensuring the U.S.-ROK relationship can successfully <\/span>evolve and expand<\/span><\/a> into a global comprehensive strategic alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Delaying the OPCON transfer to Seoul will meet little resistance under the current administration.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol expressed skepticism about a speedy OPCON transition in an <\/span>interview<\/span><\/a> with <\/span>Voice of America<\/span><\/i> in May 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSouth Korea needs to obtain more surveillance and reconnaissance assets. I think we are lacking sufficient readiness to operate intelligence assets,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is unlikely that OPCON will become a domestic political campaign issue as the ruling and opposition parties will most likely focus on economic issues. However, if the opposition Democratic Party retakes the presidency in 2027, it could resurface as a thorny alliance issue between Washington and Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Following Japan and Australia, two successive ROK administrations have signed onto joint statements with the U.S. emphasizing the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. This represents a significant shift from the language and emphases used in prior statements. However, unlike Japan and Australia, the U.S. and South Korea have yet to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2200270,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2200269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy potential war in Taiwan could delay transfer of wartime authority to Seoul - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/02\/why-potential-war-in-taiwan-could-delay-transfer-of-wartime-authority-to-seoul\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why potential war in Taiwan could delay transfer of wartime authority to Seoul - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Following Japan and Australia, two successive ROK administrations have signed onto joint statements with the U.S. emphasizing the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. 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