{"id":2200269,"date":"2023-02-27T10:35:01","date_gmt":"2023-02-27T10:35:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/?p=2200269"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:09:37","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:09:37","slug":"why-potential-war-in-taiwan-could-delay-transfer-of-wartime-authority-to-seoul","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/02\/why-potential-war-in-taiwan-could-delay-transfer-of-wartime-authority-to-seoul\/","title":{"rendered":"Why potential war in Taiwan could delay transfer of wartime authority to Seoul"},"content":{"rendered":"
Following Japan and Australia, <\/span>two<\/span><\/a> successive<\/span><\/a> ROK administrations have signed onto joint statements with the U.S. emphasizing the importance of preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. This represents a <\/span>significant shift<\/span><\/a> from the language and emphases used in prior statements.<\/span><\/p>\n However, unlike <\/span>Japan<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Australia<\/span><\/a>, the U.S. and South Korea have yet to emphasize operational or contingency planning for a Taiwan scenario. This lack of planning has led to a debate between those who think the Korean Peninsula should <\/span>heavily factor<\/span><\/a> into a potential Taiwan conflict and those who argue that the North Korean threat <\/span>requires<\/span><\/a> the full focus of the U.S.-ROK alliance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n It is debatable how a hypothetical Taiwan contingency will implicate the alliance and how the two countries should respond. Regardless, the increasing Chinese threat to Taiwan will likely impact the U.S.-ROK alliance directly by slowing down plans for transferring wartime operational control (OPCON).<\/span><\/p>\n The three main issues are shifting expectations for U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), higher thresholds for transferring OPCON and revising operational plans (OPLANs) to include contingency planning for Taiwan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n SHIFTING EXPECTATIONS<\/b><\/p>\n USFK Commander Paul LaCamera envisions a more significant role for his forces in a hypothetical conflict between Beijing and Taipei.<\/span><\/p>\n In\u00a0his May 2021 Senate confirmation hearing, LaCamera\u2019s written testimony defined his intent to pursue a <\/span>more significant role<\/span><\/a> for USFK outside the peninsula to meet regional challenges. In Sept. 2022, he again made headlines for comments about the possibility of a <\/span>contingency plan<\/span><\/a> to cope with threats to Taiwan. The outlet <\/span>Taiwan News <\/span><\/i>reported that this was the first time an incumbent USFK commander publicly addressed a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Outside these statements, the joint U.S.-ROK military <\/span>communique<\/span><\/a> from their annual Security Consultative Meeting in 2021 included Taiwan for the first time, and their latest such meeting in November continued that trend. The yearly Security Consultative Meetings are the forum in which the two countries\u2019 top defense officials review progress and affirm conditions for the transfer of operational control and assess and update operational plans, so the new references to Taiwan bear consideration in how they may impact the Conditions-based OPCON Transition Plan (COTP).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n HIGHER THRESHOLDS<\/b><\/p>\n A <\/span>critical condition<\/span><\/a> that the ROK must meet before wartime OPCON is fully transitioned to the Future Combined Forces Command is securing critical ROK and alliance military capabilities for \u201cthe security environment on the Korean Peninsula and in the region [to be] conducive to a stable OPCON transition,\u201d according to past allied agreements.<\/span><\/p>\n The condition implies that the ROK will assume wartime OPCON only when military capabilities can meet the more demanding requirements of a worsening threat environment. The <\/span>growing threat<\/span><\/a> from the DPRK notwithstanding, as China\u2019s aggressive actions in the <\/span>South<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>East<\/span><\/a> China Seas and against <\/span>Taiwan<\/span><\/a> continue destabilizing the region, thresholds for military capabilities deemed COTP sufficient will likely increase.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n