{"id":2199984,"date":"2023-02-01T09:16:02","date_gmt":"2023-02-01T09:16:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199984"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:09:50","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:09:50","slug":"why-local-politics-will-prevent-yoon-suk-yeol-from-sending-weapons-to-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/02\/why-local-politics-will-prevent-yoon-suk-yeol-from-sending-weapons-to-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Why local politics will prevent Yoon Suk-yeol from sending weapons to Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg\u2019s <\/span>two-day visit<\/span><\/a> to South Korea on Sunday marked an important moment for the ROK\u2019s partnership with NATO. Seoul established a dedicated diplomatic mission to NATO last November and Stoltenberg\u2019s visit was aimed at deepening that partnership.<\/span><\/p>\n

President Yoon Suk-yeol has repeatedly declared that his administration will pursue\u00a0 <\/span>values-based diplomacy<\/span><\/a> and\u00a0the <\/span>Indo-Pacific Strategy<\/span><\/a> that Seoul published in December clearly reflected the Yoon administration\u2019s push to turn South Korea into a \u201cglobal pivotal state.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And Stoltenberg put that pledge to the test during his visit when he urged South Korea to provide military support to Ukraine, saying the country urgently needed ammunition.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon once again faces the difficult decision of whether to provide aid. But while he has repeatedly styled himself as a supporter of Ukraine, domestic and geopolitical realities still stand in the way of his following through.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE FOREIGN TRADE ACT<\/b><\/p>\n

Stoltenberg did not forcefully insist that South Korea supply weapons to Ukraine. \u201cI would say that\u2019s, at the end of the day, a decision for you to make,\u201d he <\/span>said<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The NATO chief also acknowledged that a South Korean presidential decree that enforces the country\u2019s <\/span>Foreign Trade Act<\/span><\/a> says its exports can only be used for \u201cpeaceful purposes\u201d and \u201cshall not affect international peace, safety maintenance and national security.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But Stoltenberg argued that several NATO states and partners \u2014 Germany, Norway and Sweden \u2014 also had policies never to export weapons to countries in a conflict but had changed their policies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea has sent <\/span>non-lethal aid<\/span><\/a> such as gas masks, bulletproof vests and medical supplies to Ukraine but has declined to provide lethal weapons, citing the Foreign Trade Act for its refusal to do so.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul does not consistently adhere to the Foreign Trade Act\u2019s stipulations though. For instance, it has not stopped South Korea from <\/span>exporting arms<\/span><\/a> to Saudi Arabia, which has been involved in <\/span>Yemen\u2019s civil war<\/span><\/a> since 2015.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine is a much more high-profile conflict and thus more politicized. As a result, the main opposition Democratic Party (DP) will insist on strict adherence to the law.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Yoon decides to ship lethal weapons to Ukraine, he will need the National Assembly\u2019s cooperation to amend the Foreign Trade Act. But the DP retains majority control over the National Assembly \u2014 and due to the contentious relationship between Yoon and the DP over <\/span>corruption investigations<\/span><\/a> into the DP\u2019s chairman \u2014 it\u2019s unlikely to go along with what Yoon wants.<\/span><\/p>\n

Any attempt to ship lethal weapons directly to Ukraine without amending the Foreign Trade Act would likely initiate impeachment proceedings against Yoon.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, July 2018, via Wikimedia Commons<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE<\/b><\/p>\n

Even if Yoon could obtain the opposition\u2019s consent to provide weapons to Ukraine, that would only be the start of his troubles.<\/span><\/p>\n

If he provides weapons or ammunition to Ukraine, it will undoubtedly cement South Korea\u2019s position within the Western liberal order and facilitate its transformation into a bigger global player. While Yoon has repeatedly emphasized the \u201cglobal pivotal state\u201d line in his speeches, South Korea is not a member of any of the region\u2019s key groupings such as the Quad, AUKUS, Five Eyes or Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).<\/span><\/p>\n

There is no doubt that South Korea has become <\/span>a top arms exporter<\/span><\/a> in recent years, but selling weapons and <\/span>donating weapons<\/span><\/a> are entirely different matters.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, providing weapons to Ukraine would also invite anger from Moscow and Beijing. The <\/span>Global Times <\/span><\/i>reported<\/span><\/a> that officials in Beijing were privately upset with Yoon\u2019s participation in the NATO summit in Madrid in June last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul remained careful about balancing relations between the U.S. and China in its Indo-Pacific strategy, knowing that supplying weapons to Kyiv would likely be too far for Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russian leader Vladimir Putin also <\/span>stressed<\/span><\/a> that South Korea supplying weapons to Ukraine would destroy relations with Moscow, prompting Yoon to deny that Seoul has done so. Russia is the ROK\u2019s <\/span>fourth-largest<\/span><\/a> source of fossil fuels, accounting for about 9% of all such imports. With <\/span>gas bills quickly rising<\/span><\/a> in South Korea, Yoon will most likely not wish to pick a fight with Putin.<\/span><\/p>\n

Worse yet for the ROK, any shipment of weapons to Ukraine could spur Moscow to further strengthen ties with Pyongyang, something that\u2019s already been happening since the start of its invasion.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The U.S. recently <\/span>shared<\/span><\/a> two satellite images claiming to show North Korea exporting weapons to Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, late last year. Stoltenberg repeated the U.S. assessment of North Korean arms shipments during his visit.<\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. intelligence assessments state that the transactions have been one-sided: toward Russia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, that could change if South Korea supplies arms to Ukraine. Any Russian military support for North Korea could cause significant problems for South Korea, particularly given Moscow\u2019s claimed success in testing <\/span>intercontinental ballistic missiles<\/span><\/a> (ICBMs) and <\/span>hypersonic weapons<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL<\/b><\/p>\n

Ukraine remains low on South Koreans\u2019 concerns, as evidenced by South Korean lawmakers\u2019 <\/span>lack of interest<\/span><\/a> in his video address to the ROK National Assembly last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

President Yoon Suk-yeol and the country\u2019s major political parties are more concerned about next year\u2019s parliamentary election. To ensure electoral victory, Yoon will focus on improving his <\/span>approval rate<\/span><\/a>, but to do so, he must log success on the domestic front.<\/span><\/p>\n

With energy prices skyrocketing and <\/span>the economy slowing<\/span><\/a>, Yoon most likely does not have the political capital to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, at least not directly.<\/span><\/p>\n

When the news media <\/span>reported<\/span><\/a> in November that the U.S. would buy artillery rounds from South Korean manufacturers to provide to Ukraine, the South Korean defense ministry <\/span>denied<\/span><\/a> that the rounds were intended for Ukraine and said that the discussion with the U.S. took place \u201con the understanding that the U.S. would be the end user.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

If Yoon Suk-yeol answers Jens Stoltenberg\u2019s call for weapons to Ukraine, that will likely be the route he will choose to employ for the foreseeable future. Replenishing the ammunition stores of the allies directly providing Ukraine with arms gives Yoon plausible deniability, and that\u2019s what he wants and needs now more than recognition as a global pivotal state.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg\u2019s two-day visit to South Korea on Sunday marked an important moment for the ROK\u2019s partnership with NATO. Seoul established a dedicated diplomatic mission to NATO last November and Stoltenberg\u2019s visit was aimed at deepening that partnership. President Yoon Suk-yeol has repeatedly declared that his administration will pursue\u00a0 values-based diplomacy and\u00a0the Indo-Pacific […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2199986,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,27,28],"class_list":["post-2199984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy local politics will prevent Yoon Suk-yeol from sending weapons to Ukraine - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/02\/why-local-politics-will-prevent-yoon-suk-yeol-from-sending-weapons-to-ukraine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why local politics will prevent Yoon Suk-yeol from sending weapons to Ukraine - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg\u2019s two-day visit to South Korea on Sunday marked an important moment for the ROK\u2019s partnership with NATO. 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