{"id":2199921,"date":"2023-01-19T09:35:11","date_gmt":"2023-01-19T09:35:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199921"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:10:20","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:10:20","slug":"what-the-bank-of-korea-hopes-and-fears-for-the-south-korean-economy-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/01\/what-the-bank-of-korea-hopes-and-fears-for-the-south-korean-economy-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Bank of Korea hopes and fears for the South Korean economy in 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korean central bank chief Rhee Chang-yong spoke at his first international press conference of the year on Tuesday, giving several insights about the state of the world and the ROK economy and prospects for the future.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

During the event, Rhee provided an overall positive outlook for the South Korean economy in 2023. Low loan delinquency rates, high bank capital ratios and a strong asset base mean the chances of a general financial crisis are low.<\/span><\/p>\n

But he also underlined the risks of a sectoral shock within South Korea\u2019s real estate sector, making clear that the BOK is watching closely for signs of a hard landing and is ready to intervene with targeted actions, including supplementary liquidity provision.<\/span><\/p>\n

And while he said low oil prices and the promise of a Chinese economic recovery provide reasons for optimism, he noted that the potential for upward pressure on oil prices and growing \u201cgeopolitical fragmentation\u201d are causes for concern.<\/span><\/p>\n

THE BIG PICTURE<\/b><\/p>\n

Starting with the positives, Rhee believes that South Korea\u2019s banks are in good health and hold substantial amounts of capital in reserve that enables them to weather the greater levels of bad debt the country will see in the coming year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In other words, a financial crisis is not a distinct possibility, though there is reason to worry about the real estate market.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The BOK\u2019s most recent financial stability <\/span>report<\/span><\/a> published in December supports Rhee\u2019s optimism: stabilized interest rates and firms and households in a stable position with household debt declining and firm debt stable. Household debt, which has been particularly worrisome, is also falling relative to disposable income.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But households hold most of their assets in housing and there is a continued <\/span>threat of a hard landing<\/span><\/a> in the housing market. Sales volumes for commercial real estate have decreased by as much as one quarter overall between the second and third quarters of 2022, while housing prices have been declining across the country in the second half of the year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The BOK is deeply concerned about the threat of a hard landing in the housing market. Governor Rhee\u2019s prepared remarks indicated that the relative decline from peak housing prices in South Korea was 11.8%, compared to 10.4% in the U.S., 11.1% in New Zealand and 15.2% in Sweden.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea is on par with many of its peers in the developed world. Still, the threat of more rapid declines and the resulting impact this could have on household wealth, bank balance sheets and economic growth is of considerable concern.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rhee suggested that the BOK would stand ready to intervene with targeted support that would not interfere with the bank\u2019s more general policy of tightening the money supply. Relative price stability, with inflation expected to drop to 3% by the end of the year, also gives the bank more room to support economic growth and help weather any shocks in the housing sector.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean National Assembly, April 2007, via Wikimedia Commons<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

EXPECTATIONS AND FEARS<\/b><\/p>\n

In response to a question about his significant concerns for the coming year, Rhee offered a menu of hopes and hypothetical threats he sees potentially on the horizon.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

First, he singled out <\/span>falling oil prices<\/span><\/a> and their positive effects on inflation for domestic producers and consumers. From the bank\u2019s point of view, falling oil prices would allow the BOK to refrain from further interest rate increases and may make it easier to intervene in the event of further turbulence in the debt and real estate markets. Dollar strength has also been <\/span>waning<\/span><\/a> of late, supporting Rhee\u2019s point.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, <\/span>warmer weather<\/span><\/a> than expected in Europe leading to less spending on fuel and positive signs in U.S. <\/span>inflation<\/span><\/a> and wage data also mean that their central banks can slow rate rises. The U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s rapid rate rises throughout 2022 forced the BOK and other central banks to raise rates more quickly to defend their currencies. Hence if the Fed can slow down or stop rate rises earlier than previously expected, this will also give the BOK more room to act in the event of bad domestic economic news.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Third, Rhee had expected a bleaker Chinese economic situation, but the end of China\u2019s zero-COVID policies means that he now expects a quicker economic recovery in that country. China is South Korea\u2019s biggest trading partner and good economic news from China is expected to positively impact the balance sheets of South Korea\u2019s major firms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Rhee also singled out the Chinese recovery as a potential risk factor for the global economy and a significant potential variable for bank policy. If the Chinese recovery is too rapid, it may risk putting upward pressure on <\/span>demand<\/span><\/a> for crude oil and pushing inflation up again. Another rise in inflation may require more rate rises from the Fed and force the BOK to renew its tightening. If Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine worsens, this could also hit supplies of crude oil and have similar or compounding effects.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rhee also voiced concerns about \u201cgeopolitical fragmentation,\u201d which appears to be a diplomatic way of referring to the U.S.-China conflict. Given South Korea\u2019s heavy reliance on global trade, further conflict, in the form of additional U.S. export controls or import quotas, could impact South Korea\u2019s capacity to sell to the lucrative U.S. market. This development may also involve deepening tensions between the EU and China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rhee referenced the need for \u201cdiversification,\u201d which might involve moving production out of China and either into Southeast Asian states (not affected by U.S. export controls) or else into the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) or U.S. markets. If \u201cfragmentation\u201d occurs too quickly, however, this would not be immediately possible and could hit South Korea\u2019s capacity to export.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally and perhaps most likely, Rhee referred to the local, sectoral threat of the housing market. Ensuring a soft landing is a significant worry for the bank. While he voiced confidence that the BOK would be able to manage the situation effectively, it is currently taking up much of policymakers\u2019 energies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korean central bank chief Rhee Chang-yong spoke at his first international press conference of the year on Tuesday, giving several insights about the state of the world and the ROK economy and prospects for the future.\u00a0 During the event, Rhee provided an overall positive outlook for the South Korean economy in 2023. Low loan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2199922,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-2199921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat the Bank of Korea hopes and fears for the South Korean economy in 2023 - Korea Pro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/01\/what-the-bank-of-korea-hopes-and-fears-for-the-south-korean-economy-in-2023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What the Bank of Korea hopes and fears for the South Korean economy in 2023 - Korea Pro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korean central bank chief Rhee Chang-yong spoke at his first international press conference of the year on Tuesday, giving several insights about the state of the world and the ROK economy and prospects for the future.\u00a0 During the event, Rhee provided an overall positive outlook for the South Korean economy in 2023. 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