{"id":2199879,"date":"2023-01-12T10:26:26","date_gmt":"2023-01-12T10:26:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199879"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:10:23","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:10:23","slug":"how-domestic-politics-and-geopolitics-influence-south-koreas-nuclear-calculus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/01\/how-domestic-politics-and-geopolitics-influence-south-koreas-nuclear-calculus\/","title":{"rendered":"How domestic politics and geopolitics influence South Korea\u2019s nuclear calculus"},"content":{"rendered":"

President Yoon Suk-yeol <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> Wednesday during a joint policy briefing with his foreign and defense ministers that if the North Korean nuclear threat becomes more serious, South Korea could acquire and deploy its own tactical nuclear weapons in response.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But he immediately caveated that by saying that it is important for the ROK to choose \u201crealistic\u201d options, such as those under <\/span>discussion<\/span><\/a> with Washington on joint planning involving U.S. nuclear assets.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seemingly sensing the hot-button nature of Yoon\u2019s comment, the presidential office sent a notice to journalists informing them that Yoon remains \u201cadamant in his adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)\u201d and that Seoul is focused on strengthening extended deterrence between the ROK and the U.S. to effectively deter the North Korean threat.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the comment might also reflect domestic political factors more than serious national security goals, and it remains doubtful that Seoul will seriously consider challenging the NPT regime for the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Yoon Suk-yeol policy briefing with his foreign and defense ministers, Jan. 11, 2023 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

VOX POPULI, VOX DEI<\/b><\/p>\n

Even though the U.S.-ROK alliance maintains a <\/span>high level of support<\/span><\/a> among the South Korean public, Yoon\u2019s comments reveal an effort to tap into some of the South Korean public\u2019s underlying suspicion about U.S. commitments to defend the ROK despite Washington\u2019s <\/span>numerous<\/span><\/a> public<\/span><\/a> statements<\/span><\/a> that it would do so.<\/span><\/p>\n

During the briefing, Yoon said, \u201cThe North Korean nuclear threat is not only a threat to South Korea anymore, or an issue of the U.S. merely protecting ROK. It has become a so-called common interest for South Korea, Japan and the U.S.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Yoon added that the extended deterrence the U.S. provides is not primarily to protect South Korea but \u201cbecause the two sides\u2019 security interests align.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s now more like North Korean nukes are a threat to the U.S. too,\u201d Yoon added.<\/span><\/p>\n

The statement implies that Seoul and Washington can trust each other only because of aligned interests. However, interests can change \u2014 often swiftly \u2014 in democracies like the U.S. and South Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Daniel Pinkston, a lecturer in international relations at Troy University, said there are numerous episodes when South Koreans have felt betrayed or abandoned. He described South Koreans\u2019 underlying fears as \u201cexacerbated by a long-term sense of betrayal.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Polls taken last year found that while <\/span>49% of South Koreans<\/span><\/a> support the deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, more than 70% support a domestic nuclear weapons program. And these numbers have been consistent for years.<\/span><\/p>\n

LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS<\/b><\/p>\n

Yoon could be attempting to tap into this insecurity and testing out possible soundbites he can use toward the end of the year when the country\u2019s political parties begin gearing up for legislative elections in 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s first eight months in office have been rocky and he has never enjoyed high approval ratings. For most of his presidency, his <\/span>support<\/span><\/a> hovered in the 30s and, at one point, fell to 24%. However, Yoon appears to have found his footing when embracing a <\/span>harder-edged image<\/span><\/a>. After adopting a more <\/span>combative stance<\/span><\/a> toward the press and approaching trade unions <\/span>more aggressively<\/span><\/a>, his approval numbers have risen.<\/span><\/p>\n

After the drone fiasco at the end of December, a <\/span>worried<\/span><\/a> South Korean public might be more receptive to a hawkish president.<\/span><\/p>\n

Many of Yoon\u2019s legislative agendas have faced steep <\/span>challenges<\/span><\/a> in the National Assembly, which is currently under opposition Democratic Party (DP) control. If the ruling People Power Party (PPP) cannot wrest control of the National Assembly from the DP, Yoon will likely end his presidency without accomplishing any of his major legislative goals.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the public becomes more receptive to a hawkish leader, he is likely trying to channel that into support for the PPP.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in Washington D.C., Sept. 2015, via Wikimedia Commons<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

CHANGING GEOPOLITICS<\/b><\/p>\n

However, Yoon\u2019s unprompted comment about the possibility of an indigenous South Korean nuclear weapons program, hypothetical as it may have been, also shows that it is more than likely that Yoon and his advisers have had discussions about it behind closed doors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And it is unlikely that such talks would have excluded the topic of American opposition to such a program.<\/span><\/p>\n

In December, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> the U.S. remains fully committed to completely denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and that goal will not change. However, the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China could someday force Washington to rethink its position.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bruce Bennett, a defense researcher at RAND Corporation, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that when South Korea attempted to set up an early covert nuclear weapons program in the 1970s, the U.S. convinced Seoul to stop it by giving then-President Park Chung-hee a choice: He could either develop nuclear weapons or keep the alliance with the U.S. \u2014 but he couldn\u2019t have both.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Bennett believes that that could change because of China\u2019s recent military development, particularly its nuclear arsenal.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cChina is probably going to have 1,500 nuclear weapons by roughly 2035, according to what the Defense Department has written recently, and it causes the U.S. a problem,\u201d Bennett said. \u201cThe U.S.\u2019 negotiated agreement with Russia limits U.S. nuclear weapons to balance Russian nuclear weapons, but it doesn\u2019t take into consideration the Chinese threat. So, at some point, the U.S. is going to have to decide if it has enough weapons, given the Russian arms control limitation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Bennett also added that there is a convergence of interest between the ROK and the U.S. in their threat assessment of China.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAt this stage, recent polls said that 60-or-so percent of South Koreans find North Korea to be the primary threat today but in five to 10 years from now, 60% of South Koreans believe that China is going to be the main threat,\u201d he said. \u201cSo, the U.S. may eventually decide that this [ROK nuclear armament] is not a give-it-up or give-up-the-alliance issue.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

HOW SERIOUS IS YOON?<\/b><\/p>\n

Although Yoon might gain some support in his poll numbers, it is unlikely that Seoul is prepared to translate Yoon\u2019s words into action.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Daehan Lee, the secretary general of ROK Forum for Nuclear Strategy \u2014 a nonprofit organization specializing in South Korean nuclear security strategy \u2014 told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that despite public support for an indigenous nuclear weapons program, \u201cSouth Korean leadership still lacks strong determination and maintains [a] passive attitude, as top officials of Seoul are still not convinced or desperate enough to consider adopting more practical, efficient and daring measures especially when it comes to nuclear issues.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee also said that the ROK could face U.S. sanctions if it withdraws from the NPT to develop nuclear weapons. \u201cIf Washington would impose sanctions, its Glenn Amendment would be one of the tools [it would use] to impose sanctions on Seoul. The U.S.-led Nuclear Suppliers Group could also be forced to limit their exports of nuclear power resources and materials to South Korea.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

While it was the most explicit comment from a sitting ROK president about the possibility of South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons, it is unlikely that Yoon will deviate from current policy any time soon.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Yoon Suk-yeol said Wednesday during a joint policy briefing with his foreign and defense ministers that if the North Korean nuclear threat becomes more serious, South Korea could acquire and deploy its own tactical nuclear weapons in response.\u00a0 But he immediately caveated that by saying that it is important for the ROK to choose […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2199880,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,27,28],"class_list":["post-2199879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nHow domestic politics and geopolitics influence South Korea\u2019s nuclear calculus - Korea Pro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/01\/how-domestic-politics-and-geopolitics-influence-south-koreas-nuclear-calculus\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How domestic politics and geopolitics influence South Korea\u2019s nuclear calculus - 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