{"id":2199824,"date":"2023-01-04T08:03:15","date_gmt":"2023-01-04T08:03:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199824"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:10:25","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:10:25","slug":"how-the-power-dynamics-of-south-korean-finance-distort-stock-valuations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/01\/how-the-power-dynamics-of-south-korean-finance-distort-stock-valuations\/","title":{"rendered":"How the power dynamics of South Korean finance distort stock value forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"

For those paying attention to South Korean stock markets, analysts\u2019 forecasts on various KOSPI and KOSDAQ-listed companies might appear overly optimistic, given the absence of positive indicators.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Case in point, a Samsung Securities equity analyst recently published a <\/span>research report<\/span><\/a> about fellow affiliate Samsung Electronics titled \u201cThe Sky is Falling\u201d \u2014 somewhat appropriate, given the recent woes afflicting the semiconductor business of South Korea\u2019s largest corporation. The report noted that lower NAND and DRAM memory prices had dragged the company\u2019s profits.<\/span><\/p>\n

But despite the report\u2019s gloomy outlook toward Samsung Electronics\u2019 finances, the authors maintained a target price of $70.88 (90,000 KRW) per share for the company and rated the stock a \u201cbuy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

When the report came out on Oct. 28, 2022, Samsung Electronics\u2019 stock prices stood at just under 60,000 KRW per share and very little has changed in the two months since. Considering the general absence of good news on the stock, one must ask why these analysts believe the stock\u2019s value ought to rise by 50%.<\/span><\/p>\n

It would be unfair to say that it\u2019s simply a matter of Samsung people liking Samsung. The vast majority of analyst ratings coming out of Yeouido \u2014 Seoul\u2019s financial district \u2014 are positive and have long been that way. <\/span>According<\/span><\/a> to Democratic Party Rep. Lee Jeong-moon, 89% of analyst ratings between 2017-2020 expressed positive calls for their clients to buy. Only 11% of analyst ratings were neutral, and a mere 0.07% were negative calls to sell.<\/span><\/p>\n

This phenomenon risks creating a distorted picture of reality that can lead investors astray, and understanding the power dynamics driving these practices can help private investors make better investment decisions.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

President Yoon Suk-yeol and President Joe Biden visit Samsung Electronic\u2019s chip complex in Pyeongtaek, May 2022 | Image: POTUS Twitter<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/div>\n

POWER DYNAMICS<\/b><\/p>\n

Analysts in South Korea typically set target prices at some point higher than the current stock price, then adjust them either up or down in response to whether the price rises or falls.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This phenomenon is not unique to this particular rating company, as all 31 domestic brokers that publish analyst reports in South Korea also do it to one degree or another. However, some are more generous than others.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

According to <\/span>Kyunghyang Shinmun<\/span><\/i> newspaper<\/span><\/a>, Yuanta Securities issued 2,488 buy reports in 2021. Shinhan Investment Corp. issued 2,028, Korea Investment & Securities 1,838 and Samsung Securities 1,797. None of the four issued a single \u201csell\u201d recommendation at that time.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rep. Lee also studied 14 foreign brokers that follow Korean stocks and found that they issued sell recommendations in just under 9% of cases. Thus, international analysts are far, far more likely to express negative opinions on KOSPI or KOSDAQ-listed companies publicly.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Accounting for this discrepancy is relatively easy. As anyone in the industry will affirm, albeit off the record, it is practically impossible for an equity analyst at a domestic Korean brokerage firm to rate a stock a \u201csell.\u201d Companies even consider \u201cmarket perform\u201d and \u201cneutral\u201d classifications as lobbed hand grenades.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf we want information or any future business from Company X, there is no way we can call their stock a \u2018sell,\u2019\u201d one former analyst told <\/span>KOREA PRO<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is frequently stated in Korea that in any relationship, there is a \u201cgab\u201d<\/span> (one in a position of power) and an \u201ceul\u201d<\/span> (one who has to submit to the \u201cgab\u2019s\u201d wishes). In being dependent upon the companies they cover, Korean investment houses are \u201ceul<\/span>.<\/span><\/i>\u201d<\/span> They thus must issue buy recommendations to handle IPOs and M&A deals and get the inside track on what is really going on at <\/span>\u201cGab\u201d <\/span><\/i>Inc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Matters are not helped by the fact that so much of the economy is controlled by \u201cchaebol,\u201d the large conglomerates run and controlled by wealthy families such as Hyundai and Samsung. Investment houses understandably find it difficult to publicly criticize a firm when it is part of a group with multiple other large subsidiaries, each of which could stop doing business with them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Add to this the clubby atmosphere of the investment and business community in Seoul, where everyone seems to know everyone and it is easy to see why an analyst would want to toe the line. The \u201csell\u201d rating is highly disincentivized.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There are also plenty of instances in which brokerages have issued suspicious \u201cbuy\u201d ratings after loading up on shares. The Financial Supervisory Service <\/span>found<\/span><\/a> 41 such cases in the past five years. Still, the regulatory response to most of these was simply to request \u201cimprovement\u201d rather than to impose fines or other actual costs on offenders.<\/span><\/p>\n

DOING ONE\u2019S RESEARCH<\/b><\/p>\n

There is no loss to either \u201cgab\u201d or \u201ceul\u201d<\/span> in any of this, but there is one more unfortunate participant in this picture \u2014 the investor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Private investors are particularly susceptible to buying stocks based on analyst reports, which are free and easily accessed online. These reports can give a possibly false sense of reassurance based on the author\u2019s professional expertise and affiliation with a household-name brokerage.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Many local brokerage reports are also available in English. Many foreign investors who are interested in Korean stocks, therefore, also read them. Analyst reports may be helpful for background knowledge, especially in a field where non-Korean language information is thin on the ground. Still, there is no substitute for doing one\u2019s own research.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Culture & Society<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For those paying attention to South Korean stock markets, analysts\u2019 forecasts on various KOSPI and KOSDAQ-listed companies might appear overly optimistic, given the absence of positive indicators.\u00a0 Case in point, a Samsung Securities equity analyst recently published a research report about fellow affiliate Samsung Electronics titled \u201cThe Sky is Falling\u201d \u2014 somewhat appropriate, given the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2199825,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24,25],"class_list":["post-2199824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy","tag-culture-society"],"yoast_head":"\nHow the power dynamics of South Korean finance distort stock value forecasts - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2023\/01\/how-the-power-dynamics-of-south-korean-finance-distort-stock-valuations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How the power dynamics of South Korean finance distort stock value forecasts - 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