{"id":2199760,"date":"2022-12-21T08:01:26","date_gmt":"2022-12-21T08:01:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199760"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:10:30","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:10:30","slug":"what-rising-interest-rates-mean-for-the-south-korean-real-estate-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/12\/what-rising-interest-rates-mean-for-the-south-korean-real-estate-market\/","title":{"rendered":"What rising interest rates mean for the South Korean real estate market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Korean households have amassed a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/english.hani.co.kr\/arti\/english_edition\/e_business\/1046058.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">significant amount<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of household debt. The ROK government is adept at hiding its liabilities in off-balance sheets via public entities like KEPCO, which have quasi-government <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/2022\/11\/legoland-default-a-bleak-signal-for-south-koreas-corporate-bond-market\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">guarantees<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> but whose liabilities government debt-to-GDP calculations don\u2019t include.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, households have nowhere to hide much of the money they borrow. Although household debt is a problem across the OECD, it is particularly acute in South Korea. A Korea Pro analysis indicates:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Korea\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/2022\/10\/why-south-koreas-highly-regulated-economy-is-a-headache-for-foreign-investors\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">debt situation<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is generally stable, with the government in a healthy position relative to most other developed countries and corporations still not overleveraged.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But household debt is remarkably high, primarily secured in housing, as it is difficult for most households to borrow large amounts without collateral. As it usually is in the OECD, asset price changes and growing investment in real estate relative to changes in disposable income propel debt growth.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2022-06-22\/what-s-happening-in-the-world-economy-discover-the-bubbliest-housing-markets\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bloomberg<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, South Korean house price inflation is less dramatic relative to many OECD countries and the real estate bubble is smaller.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Debt is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kdi.re.kr\/research\/reportView?&amp;pub_no=17049&amp;media=hotissue\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">held<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> mainly by higher-income households, making an interest rate-induced financial crisis unlikely.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The acute pain that some households will feel as interest rates rise will be a social and political problem. In contrast, the chronic problems of debt overhang in the household sector may lead to longer-run economic stagnation beginning earlier than anticipated.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>RISING DEBT<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ROK government has a healthy balance sheet when excluding public enterprise debt and is <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kipf.re.kr\/gafsc\/financestatistics_PublicSector.do\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">still respectable<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with it. The corporate sector is also <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/c\/collateral.asp\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">relatively healthy<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, but the household sector is highly indebted.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/data.oecd.org\/hha\/household-debt.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">OECD<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, South Korea\u2019s household debt is now at over 200% of disposable income, making it the sixth highest in the group. The speed of growth is also problematic, with the rate topping 5% of net disposable income in 2020 and 4.4% in 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A popular interpretation of these figures is that they result from an underdeveloped welfare state, with households forced to borrow to compensate for income shortfalls. But the explosion in household debt is not a uniquely Korean phenomenon, with many OECD countries, including those with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/09692290.2020.1745868\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">expansive welfare<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> states, seeing a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/data.oecd.org\/hha\/household-debt.htm\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">marked rise<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in household debt in the post-2008 period due to increasing real asset values and relatively stagnant real estate incomes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2199761\" style=\"width: 945px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2199761\" class=\"size-post_feature_image wp-image-2199761\" src=\"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2022\/12\/52468917141_aa684c20c3_k-935x500.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"935\" height=\"500\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2199761\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">An apartment complex in central Seoul | Image: KoreaPro<\/p><\/div>\n<p><b>WHO OWNS THE DEBT?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Two other related views explain increased household debt. The first view is that the desire and capacity to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/mediahub.seoul.go.kr\/archives\/2005601\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">purchase apartments<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> far exceeded the <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sisajournal.com\/news\/articleView.html?idxno=248034\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">rising<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> absolute supply of apartment units, driving prices upward. The second is that low interest rates incentivized a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2022-06-22\/what-s-happening-in-the-world-economy-discover-the-bubbliest-housing-markets\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">housing bubble<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, which pushed up indebtedness among people in OECD countries, albeit in some more than others.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recent analysis from Bloomberg <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2022-06-22\/what-s-happening-in-the-world-economy-discover-the-bubbliest-housing-markets\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">indicates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that South Korea\u2019s real estate market is far less expensive compared to many other OECD countries, proving that the cost of housing is not the primary driver of household indebtedness for the average ROK household. In other words, the primary driver of growing indebtedness is not middle-class consumers being priced out of the housing market or borrowing beyond their means.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This finding is less surprising than it sounds. According to a 2016 study, households with high net disposable incomes tend to <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd-ilibrary.org\/docserver\/5jm3xgtkk1f2-en.pdf?expires=1671433761&amp;id=id&amp;accname=guest&amp;checksum=5EB698C761D9988F20B1BFE7AA0A150A\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hold<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> most household debt in OECD countries. These households have high credit ratings, can borrow significant amounts of money and have a relatively low credit risk.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Their low credit risk explains why banks are happy to lend and why rates of indebtedness continue to grow in many countries.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Further, these households generally have lower Debt Service Ratios (DSR; the ratio of debt service costs to annual income) and thus a larger cushion of excess disposable income to fall back on when interest rates rise.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So, household debt may not be a macroeconomic timebomb at the heart of the financial system that could spark a financial crisis as it sometimes may appear because asset-rich, high-income households primarily hold it. There have been exceptions to this, notably the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.co.kr\/books?id=XW2YDwAAQBAJ&amp;printsec=frontcover&amp;dq=game+of+bank+bargains&amp;hl=en&amp;sa=X&amp;redir_esc=y#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. mortgage market<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> before the global financial crisis. Still, generally, this appears to be the case in OECD countries today, including <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/kiss.kstudy.com\/thesis\/thesis-view.asp?key=3888870\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">South Korea<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>FALLING THROUGH THE CRACKS<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Hence, even if there is a substantial rise in interest rates, the households that primarily hold most of the country\u2019s debts can afford to make the repayments. And overall, the country\u2019s financial institutions <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.index.go.kr\/unify\/idx-info.do?idxCd=4211\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">maintain<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> large capital buffers, meaning that a systemwide financial crisis appears relatively remote.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, two threats could still make South Korea\u2019s accumulated household debt a significant economic problem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rising debt defaults in smaller segments of the financial industry, such as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/news.einfomax.co.kr\/news\/articleView.html?idxno=4245030\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">internet banking<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/biz.chosun.com\/stock\/finance\/2022\/12\/07\/GHBKEV6UUJADBMAFYALWEOTCZA\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">savings banks<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, illustrate the acute threat that household debt may hold for the country. Rising interest rates hit some households, primarily self-employed individuals, with <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/m.khan.co.kr\/economy\/finance\/article\/202207181202011#c2b\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">unsustainable<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> debt service costs and debt distress. The acute pain may fall on households whose overall significance for the financial system is minor, but their pain may still demand a societal response and require debt restructuring.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kcmi.re.kr\/common\/downloadw?fid=24681&amp;fgu=002001&amp;fty=004003\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Existing research<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on household debt also paints a gloomy picture of its <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bok.or.kr\/portal\/cmmn\/file\/fileDown.do?menuNo=200634&amp;atchFileId=FILE_000000000028314&amp;fileSn=19\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">potential<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> chronic effects when interest rates rise. Households cut back on discretionary spending due to uncertainty and higher debt servicing costs. They also cut back on investment to pay down debt or to hold cash in case of an emergency. The net result is slower growth.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thus, acute pain for some segments of the household sector, such as the self-employed, will likely spell significant social and political distress. However, a financial crisis appears highly unlikely, aside from those affecting relatively marginal parts of the financial system.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But chronic pain could be felt for years or even longer if interest rates remain high and new growth engines do not emerge. Household debt overhang may speed up the secular stagnation anticipated due to structural economic decline.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<div class=\"content-tags\"><a href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/tag\/business-economy\/\"><span class=\"tag\">Business &amp; Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>South Korean households have amassed a significant amount of household debt. The ROK government is adept at hiding its liabilities in off-balance sheets via public entities like KEPCO, which have quasi-government guarantees but whose liabilities government debt-to-GDP calculations don\u2019t include.\u00a0 However, households have nowhere to hide much of the money they borrow. Although household debt [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2199762,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-2199760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>What rising interest rates mean for the South Korean real estate market - Korea Pro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/12\/what-rising-interest-rates-mean-for-the-south-korean-real-estate-market\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What rising interest rates mean for the South Korean real estate market - Korea Pro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korean households have amassed a significant amount of household debt. The ROK government is adept at hiding its liabilities in off-balance sheets via public entities like KEPCO, which have quasi-government guarantees but whose liabilities government debt-to-GDP calculations don\u2019t include.\u00a0 However, households have nowhere to hide much of the money they borrow. 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