{"id":2199736,"date":"2022-12-19T10:09:01","date_gmt":"2022-12-19T10:09:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199736"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:10:31","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:10:31","slug":"south-koreas-real-estate-sector-turbulence-creates-new-risks-and-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/12\/south-koreas-real-estate-sector-turbulence-creates-new-risks-and-opportunities\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea\u2019s real estate sector turbulence creates new risks and opportunities"},"content":{"rendered":"

Growing turbulence in South Korea\u2019s real estate sector and the broader economy is likely to create new risks for international investors and foreigners on the peninsula, economic and industry analysts have told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Risks include diminished nationwide consumption, reduced appetite for major transactions and new construction initiatives, and increased rental fees. On the flip side, however, experts say growing demand in some parts of the office space sector, the potential to purchase real estate at reduced prices and a welcome shift towards month-to-month rental standards present some modest opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\n

KEY CONTEXT<\/b><\/p>\n

While South Korea <\/span>isn\u2019t alone<\/span><\/a> in experiencing a rapid decline in real estate prices, it comes in a market where home prices <\/span>more than doubled<\/span><\/a> over the past five years, partly due to a growing public belief that real estate was <\/span>the safest long-term bet<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Korean residential real estate market is going through a sharp price correction driven by rising interest rates and economic uncertainty,\u201d said Insong Kim, co-founder and chief strategy officer at <\/span>Dongnae<\/span><\/a> \u2013 a Seoul-based residential sector startup. \u201cSeoul apartment prices came down 6.63% year-to-date, which is even faster than during the ‘<\/span>08 crisis<\/span><\/a>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

With the Bank of Korea keeping pace with the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate hikes throughout much of the year, the cost of borrowing has made purchasing much harder. And that\u2019s been problematic for two reasons, said Kunkook University professor No Seung-han.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On the one hand, hikes make loan repayments for existing owners costlier, sometimes forcing property owners to sell and contributing to a downward trend in overall real estate prices. On the other hand, No said declining national economic performance means would-be buyers have fewer savings to secure loans, further contributing to reduced demand and falling prices.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

An apartment complex in Seoul, Aug. 2014 | Image: Republic of Korea via Flickr<\/p><\/div>\n

Whatever the cause, the data shows the two-prong nature of the problem: First, apartment prices in Seoul decreased for 26 consecutive weeks as of the <\/span>third week in November<\/span><\/a>. Second, demand for real estate is <\/span>rapidly drying up<\/span><\/a> even with declining prices: 449,967 housing units were sold in the first ten months of the year compared to the 894,238 units sold in the same period last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe real estate industry has been entering a downward phase since August,\u201d said Andy Park of Andy\u2019s Real Estate, <\/span>a real estate company specializing in foreign rentals and investments in Mapo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the large lump-sum deposit lease model called \u201cjeonse\u201d is also not as popular as it once was.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Due to the nature of the \u201cjeonse\u201d system, in which the property owner earns interest off the large deposit in lieu of monthly rent payments, banks are typically a major provider of significant lines of credit for would-be tenants. However, not only have the sharply increased interest repayments made new \u201cjeonse\u201d deals less attractive, but those with expiring leases are facing growing problems in even getting their money back from landlords.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c<\/span>Jeonse prices are \u2026 falling alongside transaction prices,\u201d said Kim of Dongnae. Inventory contracted \u201cduring the rapid upturn (of) 2020 to early 2022,\u201d and many of those leases are due for renewals, but unfavorable market conditions will lead to many of those leases getting renewed at a \u201csignificantly lower\u201d level than during the peak years.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWith such a rapid correction, \u201cjeonse\u201d landlords and tenants are expected to be impacted the most,\u201d he said. \u201cLandlords are struggling to return \u201cjeonse\u201d deposits to existing tenants, which may only be resolved via a costly auction process.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And with rapid auction sales likely to result in prices well below even the discounted \u201cjeonse\u201d value, there is a risk that in addition to delays in getting large deposits back, \u201cthe tenant will not get the full money back \u2014 even through an auction \u2014 with a market correction of more than 20%,\u201d Kim said. \u201cThis has the potential of becoming a huge social issue for Korea.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Apartments in central Seoul | Image: Republic of Korea via Flickr<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

DECREASING CONSUMPTION<\/b><\/p>\n

<\/b>From a macro level, recent developments in the residential sector will likely have a minimal impact on foreign investors given the <\/span>slim overseas footprint<\/span><\/a> in real estate and large lump-sum transactions. But the possibility of reduced disposable income among South Koreans in the wake of rising interest rates could have a more significant impact.<\/span><\/p>\n

With mortgage repayment rates last year comprising an estimated 45% of disposable income in the ROK, forecasts of 7% or higher interest rates by the end of 2022 mean that the ratio could exceed <\/span>62%<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWith less disposable income washing around, (locals) will cut back on consumer purchases of various kinds, which will obviously be bad for the South Korean market,\u201d said Peter Ward, a contributing analyst to <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThat’s going to affect people who are invested in South Korean markets or the South Korean Stock Exchange or in firms that have made a lot of sales in South Korea itself,\u201d he continued, describing investments in firms like Samsung and Hyundai as being particularly exposed to declining domestic consumer spending.<\/span><\/p>\n

With a significant amount of corporate debt in South Korea <\/span>owned by foreigners<\/span><\/a>, Ward said, \u201cthis would hurt foreign investors who are invested in the South Korean market.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

An apartment under construction, Sept. 2020 | Image: KoreaPro<\/p><\/div>\n

INSTITUTIONAL PROBLEMS<\/b><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, rising interest rates and repercussions from South Korea\u2019s recent <\/span>Legoland default fiasco<\/span><\/a> could have consequences for institutional transactions and large-scale construction efforts.<\/span><\/p>\n

Judy Jang, an associate director of research at Colliers Korea, said that interest rate hikes had knock-on effects on the completion of major transactions, such as Mirae Asset\u2019s <\/span>recent failure to purchase<\/span><\/a> the International Finance Center (IFC) in Seoul.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cYou can easily understand why the IFC deal was canceled,\u201d Jang said, pointing to high interest rates. In particular, she said, institutional investors are now looking for opportunities \u201cmore conservatively,\u201d sometimes even \u201ccanceling previous orders.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Further, <\/span>shattered<\/span><\/a> trust in government bonds after Legoland raised <\/span>questions<\/span><\/a> about financing other large-scale construction projects. This has included the cancellation of bonds for affordable housing construction in Incheon in <\/span>October<\/span><\/a> and a <\/span>failure to attract buyers<\/span><\/a> for bonds to finance public housing construction in Seoul.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ward said foreign investors would likely find the emerging environment risky.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThese events potentially signal a more general slowdown in investment that will hit domestic output and consumption in the long run,\u201d he said. \u201cBasically, if you’re investing in South Korea, you will struggle to profit.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Afternoon rush hour traffic in Seoul | Stan Chow via Flickr<\/a>\u00a0(CC BY 2.0<\/a>)<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

RISING RENTAL<\/b><\/p>\n

With demand for the \u201cjeonse\u201d<\/span> system impacted by increasing interest rates, the desirability of the rental market has ramped up significantly.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn our country, tenants mostly prefer the jeonse and lending systems,\u201d said No of Kunkook University. \u201cBut the rate hike will most likely accelerate those tenants wanting to switch to renting apartments.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

And for landlords renting out their property, growing interest rates and demand mean a perfect storm for increasing prices.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis may place upward pressure on rents because a lot of properties that are rented are mortgaged,\u201d said Ward. \u201cAnd landlords with rising interest repayment demands may choose to put up rents or try to put up rents in order to compensate for \u2026 rising costs in finance paying their mortgage.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, foreign firms underwriting the living costs of expatriate staff are likely to feel increasing costs in the short term, not to mention foreign residents who have to cover such costs by themselves.<\/span><\/p>\n

YET SOME OPPORTUNITIES<\/b><\/p>\n

Observers said that despite the range of growing real estate sector problems, there are some opportunities to be found.<\/span><\/p>\n

Firstly, although the residential sector is experiencing a major contraction, demand in the commercial sector remains strong.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

With the ROK tech industry having grown stronger during the pandemic, demand among related occupiers has surged in some locations, well beyond local supply in some areas like Seoul\u2019s Gangnam business district, said Jang of Colliers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn this third quarter, (institutional investors) could not find available space anymore \u2026 (meaning) they are looking for the other opportunities in Songsu-dong or Gwacheon,\u201d she said, a possible area for institutional investors to look into.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cFurthermore, as macro-economic turbulence has worsened, demand for co-working spaces has increased in many parts of South Korea,\u201d Jang continued, flagging another area of potential growth for those capable of buying without needing costly loans and financing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Secondly, for foreign speculators unaffected by rising interest rates, the decreasing value of South Korean residential real estate prices could also be a good opportunity.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe sharp correction in prices coupled with a weak KRW provides international investors a window of opportunity to acquire core residential assets,\u201d said Kim of Dongnae.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

An apartment complex in central Seoul | Image: KoreaPro<\/p><\/div>\n

But that is only if buyers get the timing right.<\/span><\/p>\n

Citing \u201cmajor corrections\u201d like the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis, we’re likely to see at least an overall 20% decline,\u201d Kim pointed out. \u201cMarket players are expecting to find the bottom at around H2 2023, as supply gets tight towards the year-end with the majority of construction projects getting canceled or delayed due to financial instability.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, profiting from such investments might have to be done in the short to medium term. That\u2019s because some <\/span>overall<\/span><\/a> forecast a troublesome long-term picture in the South Korean real estate market due to the combined consequences of a declining population, a slowing economy and growing North Korea-related risks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Lastly, if the trend away from \u201cjeonse\u201d<\/span> continues and renting becomes increasingly normalized, there will likely be medium-term benefits for foreign companies sending expatriate staff to the ROK and among general foreign residents there.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Growing turbulence in South Korea\u2019s real estate sector and the broader economy is likely to create new risks for international investors and foreigners on the peninsula, economic and industry analysts have told Korea Pro.\u00a0 Risks include diminished nationwide consumption, reduced appetite for major transactions and new construction initiatives, and increased rental fees. On the flip […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10207,"featured_media":2199743,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-2199736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea\u2019s real estate sector turbulence creates new risks and opportunities - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/12\/south-koreas-real-estate-sector-turbulence-creates-new-risks-and-opportunities\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea\u2019s real estate sector turbulence creates new risks and opportunities - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Growing turbulence in South Korea\u2019s real estate sector and the broader economy is likely to create new risks for international investors and foreigners on the peninsula, economic and industry analysts have told Korea Pro.\u00a0 Risks include diminished nationwide consumption, reduced appetite for major transactions and new construction initiatives, and increased rental fees. 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