{"id":2199652,"date":"2022-12-06T09:05:04","date_gmt":"2022-12-06T09:05:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199652"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:10:52","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:10:52","slug":"how-fear-of-china-helps-drive-discussions-about-south-korean-nukes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/12\/how-fear-of-china-helps-drive-discussions-about-south-korean-nukes\/","title":{"rendered":"How fear of China helps drive discussions about South Korean nukes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Seoul\u2019s official position is that it does not seek to develop or acquire its own indigenous nuclear weapons. Instead, its official goal remains the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and it aims to cooperate with international partners, such as the U.S. and China, to achieve that goal.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, increasing discussion about South Korea\u2019s hypothetical acquisition of some form of nuclear deterrence among ROK policymakers and commentators means that Seoul will find it increasingly difficult to ignore public opinion.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing is particularly concerned with this development because many of the voices calling for a South Korean nuclear weapons program have not been shy about tying their concerns to what they perceive as Beijing\u2019s complicity in failing to stop the DPRK\u2019s nuclear program.<\/span><\/p>\n

For example, in a recent <\/span>interview<\/span><\/a> with the <\/span>Japan Times<\/span><\/i>, President Yoon Suk-yeol stated that China has \u201ca responsibility\u201d to influence North Korea\u2019s behavior. He also added that if China failed to do so, it would lead to an \u201cinflux of military assets to the region.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Furthermore, some ROK policymakers and commentators have even pointed to China itself as a reason for the South Korean government to consider some form of nuclear armament.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

All of this poses a problem for Beijing and potentially for ROK-China ties, underlining how Seoul\u2019s increasing willingness to entertain acquiring its own nuclear weapons threatens to upend geopolitics in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol meets with President Xi Jinping, Nov. 15, 2022 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

CHINA\u2019S POSITION<\/b><\/p>\n

China steadfastly denies that it has failed to take steps to curb North Korea. At a recent press conference in Seoul, Beijing\u2019s ambassador to the ROK, Xing Haiming, <\/span>insisted<\/span><\/a> that China has been actively seeking a peaceful resolution to the nuclear standoff over North Korea for two decades. Furthermore, Xing noted the increasing discourse about nuclearization in the ROK and stated Beijing\u2019s opposition to the idea of a nuclear-armed South Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Such denials notwithstanding, China <\/span>has blocked<\/span><\/a> multilateral efforts aimed at reining in the DPRK by using its veto power in the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) \u2014 a decision likely brought about by <\/span>growing tensions<\/span><\/a> between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, the South Korean government and analysts such as Lee Sang-sook at the state-affiliated Institute for Foreign Policy and National Security continue to <\/span>hope<\/span><\/a> that Seoul can cooperate with China in controlling the DPRK\u2019s nuclear ambitions. However, South Korean scholars unrestrained by the need to maintain diplomatic sensitives have been more outspoken about China.<\/span><\/p>\n

For example, Park Won-gon, a frequent commentator on China-Korea relations, <\/span>argued<\/span><\/a> that Beijing\u2019s official <\/span>statement<\/span><\/a> about North Korea\u2019s \u201creasonable concerns\u201d may give implicit blessing for Pyongyang to go ahead with a seventh nuclear weapons test.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Furthermore, Oh Gyeong Sup of the Korean Institute for National Unification <\/span>points to<\/span><\/a> China\u2019s willingness to provide the DPRK with food aid, essentially subsidizing North Korea\u2019s ongoing defense provocations.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

NOT JUST NORTH KOREA<\/b><\/p>\n

With an <\/span>uptick in remarks<\/span><\/a> among South Korean policymakers and scholars noting Beijing\u2019s failure to deter North Korea, there is no doubt that China is a variable that drives Seoul\u2019s nuclearization discourse.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet it is not simply China\u2019s relationship with North Korea but China itself that has occasionally prompted calls for South Korean nuclearization in influential quarters.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

During a recent inquiry session at the ROK National Assembly, lawmaker Thae Yong-ho <\/span>asked<\/span><\/a> the ROK\u2019s ambassador to Turkey, Lee Won-ik, about public opinion in Turkey toward Ankara\u2019s nuclear-sharing agreement with the U.S. government. While North Korea\u2019s nuclear threat was at the forefront of the inquiry, Thae also specifically mentioned China\u2019s nuclear posture as a reason for the ROK government to look into a possible nuclear-sharing agreement with Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lee Geun, a professor of international politics at Seoul National University, made a similar <\/span>argument<\/span><\/a> recently during an interview with the <\/span>Donga Daily<\/span><\/i>. Lee argued that while North Korea is the primary threat, the great powers in South Korea\u2019s immediate vicinity also provided a sufficient pretext for Seoul to consider nuclearization.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Biden and Xi hold talks ahead of the G-20 summit in Indonesia in Nov. 2022 | Image: White House Twitter<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

GREAT POWER OPPOSITION<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite <\/span>growing tensions<\/span><\/a> between Washington and Beijing, both countries oppose South Korea arming itself with nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indeed, even as Beijing is <\/span>seemingly content<\/span><\/a> to allow the DPRK to provoke the U.S., Washington <\/span>does not want<\/span><\/a> its Korean ally to possess a nuclear deterrent, even if such a deterrent would, in part, help the ROK stand up to China.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Like China, the U.S. <\/span>officially opposes<\/span><\/a> the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea. Furthermore, an indigenous South Korean nuclear deterrent could <\/span>pose severe challenges<\/span><\/a> to U.S. national interests. Aside from running counter to the <\/span>principle of nonproliferation<\/span><\/a>, an indigenous South Korean nuclear deterrent means Seoul could take a <\/span>more strategically independent position<\/span><\/a> in international affairs, thus frustrating the balance of power in Northeast Asia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Although Beijing would welcome any rift in ROK-U.S. relations, the fact that Seoul\u2019s desire for its own nuclear deterrent is partly due to suspicion of Beijing means that China will not be able to enjoy that rift for long.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The U.S. and ROK joint air exercise \u201cVigilant Storm\u201d involving the U.S.\u2019s B-1B bombers and ROK\u2019s F-35A fighter jets | Image: Staff Sergeant Dwane Young via United States Forces Korea<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

THE NUCLEAR IMPACT<\/b><\/p>\n

If North Korea goes ahead with a seventh nuclear test, the ROK-U.S. alliance may be forced to respond with a corresponding show of force. One of the ways to do so would likely involve deploying air- and sea-based nuclear assets closer to the Korean Peninsula in the longer term. There are already signs that the U.S. Navy is conducting such operations after the USS Michigan\u2019s <\/span>brief stop<\/span><\/a> in Okinawa in early November.<\/span><\/p>\n

It was highly unusual for the U.S. Navy to publicize the USS Michigan\u2019s location considering it\u2019s an Ohio-class nuclear-powered guided missile submarine whose movements and locations are usually classified. The decision to do so seeks to demonstrate the alliance\u2019s willingness to stand up to Pyongyang.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, any ROK-U.S. action will necessarily have to factor in China\u2019s response. Given Beijing\u2019s <\/span>approaching nuclear parity <\/span><\/a>with the U.S., the ROK-U.S. alliance will have to be careful to balance its willingness to display resolve before the DPRK against the risk of unnerving China.<\/span><\/p>\n

And while Washington opposes South Korea\u2019s nuclearization, the persistent discussion around the issue in Seoul and the way in which China factors into them means the issue could ultimately be a thornier problem for Beijing-Seoul ties than for the alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by John Lee<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Seoul\u2019s official position is that it does not seek to develop or acquire its own indigenous nuclear weapons. Instead, its official goal remains the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and it aims to cooperate with international partners, such as the U.S. and China, to achieve that goal. However, increasing discussion about South Korea\u2019s hypothetical acquisition […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10407,"featured_media":2199653,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2199652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nHow fear of China helps drive discussions about South Korean nukes - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/12\/how-fear-of-china-helps-drive-discussions-about-south-korean-nukes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How fear of China helps drive discussions about South Korean nukes - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Seoul\u2019s official position is that it does not seek to develop or acquire its own indigenous nuclear weapons. 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