{"id":2199535,"date":"2022-11-23T10:00:24","date_gmt":"2022-11-23T10:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199535"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:10:56","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:10:56","slug":"why-decoupling-from-china-creates-economic-and-security-risks-for-south-korea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/11\/why-decoupling-from-china-creates-economic-and-security-risks-for-south-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"Why decoupling from China creates economic and security risks for South Korea"},"content":{"rendered":"

In recent months, decoupling \u2014 or reducing dependence on other countries \u2014 has been a much-talked-about activity for South Korean lawmakers. The Chip 4 alliance, with which South Korea is now involved, is a prime <\/span>example<\/span><\/a>, as well as the continuation of <\/span>Trump-era protectionism<\/span><\/a> codified in the Inflation Reduction Act that creates new barriers for South Korean and other foreign automakers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chinese leader Xi Jinping, meanwhile, <\/span>emphasized<\/span><\/a> the importance of self-sufficiency and economic independence at China\u2019s latest party congress, raising new questions about the long-term growth prospects for Seoul\u2019s largest trading partner and, in turn, the South Korean economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the less markets are intertwined, the higher the risk of interstate conflict. Economic interdependence can serve as a preventative measure against this and boost peace and stability for export-dependent economies like South Korea, and the Yoon Suk-yeol administration should think carefully before severing trade relationships that ultimately benefit his country.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese President Xi Jinping shaking hands ahead of a summit in Bali, Indonesia on Nov. 15, 2022 | Image: The Presidential Office<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

STEPPING BACK<\/b><\/p>\n

China\u2019s economic growth over the past four decades has generated <\/span>absolute economic gains<\/span><\/a> for all involved. All the while, China has boosted military spending proportionally to its economic growth and become increasingly assertive politically, economically and territorially. Its trade partners have become increasingly alarmed over Beijing\u2019s uncompetitive trade laws and intellectual property theft.<\/span><\/p>\n

Since 2015, Beijing\u2019s \u201cMade in China 2025\u201d policy has aimed at making the country more self-sufficient while still increasing its share of the global market. U.S. business leaders and others now <\/span>express concerns<\/span><\/a> that China is no longer interested in market liberalization.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2018, the Trump administration <\/span>tried to address<\/span><\/a> the growing U.S.-China trade deficit with a turn to protectionism. Many of these measures have <\/span>continued<\/span><\/a> under Biden, and U.S. allies have been encouraged to join in. This process was <\/span>facilitated<\/span><\/a> by COVID-19, which laid bare both the importance and fragility of supply chains.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under the Yoon administration, South Korea has increasingly been drawn into decoupling. Proponents argue that South Korea cannot rely on opaque, illiberal states such as China, which has already demonstrated its willingness to punish its partners when they step out of line. In 2016, Beijing blocked tourism, entertainment and other trade with South Korea after the Park Geun-hye administration agreed to host a U.S. missile defense system, costing the ROK <\/span>billions<\/span><\/a> in lost GDP.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korean Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese President Xi Jinping holding a summit in Bali, Indonesia on Nov. 15, 2022 | Image: The Presidential Office<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

GRASS AIN\u2019T GREENER<\/b><\/p>\n

But pulling back from the Chinese market would pose real risks to South Korea\u2019s economy and its national security. The PRC accounts for a quarter of South Korean exports, and even a partial decoupling could have disastrous consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n

These include smaller trade flows, foreign investment, R&D cooperation, market access and people-to-people exchanges.\u00a0 South Korea would suffer from more expensive imports, short-term supply chain disruptions, lower competitiveness and a hit to its reputation as a free and open market economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Loss of diversification is another less commonly discussed downside of decoupling. Over <\/span>40% of South Korea\u2019s GDP<\/span><\/a> is generated by exporting goods and services, meaning that reducing dependency on the PRC would require de-diversifying South Korea\u2019s revenue streams, making it more dependent on its remaining partners.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But in addition to economic challenges, decoupling likely also places South Korea and other states in a more precarious security situation. Giving states a stake in each other’s economy <\/span>increases the cost<\/span><\/a> of going to war, thereby decreasing the likelihood of conflict. Thus, dismantling economic interdependence with China would also eliminate a safeguard against conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n

While bilateral trade flows alone are <\/span>not enough<\/span><\/a> to prevent conflict \u2014 see for example Japan\u2019s trade restrictions on key tech materials to South Korea and the ROK\u2019s subsequent boycott movement against Japanese goods in 2019 \u2014 interdependence does disincentivize conflict. Data on the frequency of armed conflicts before and after increased economic interdependence with China provides <\/span>empirical evidence<\/span><\/a> for this, too.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Semiconductors | Image: Pixabay<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

MUTALLY ASSURED PROSPERITY<\/b><\/p>\n

Security experts <\/span>have argued<\/span><\/a> that economic interdependence between the U.S. and China is a key indicator suggesting the two powers will not go to war. America\u2019s last major challenger, the Soviet Union, traded very little with the U.S., making the risk of conflict \u2014 direct or by proxy \u2014 much higher. South Korea and other middle powers have taken into account U.S.-China interdependence thus far, <\/span>research shows<\/span><\/a>, but if that precondition changes, so might other countries\u2019 calculations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another way to frame the issue is that decoupling might make states less vulnerable to China\u2019s economic predations while simultaneously increasing the risk of direct conflict. As China becomes less economically enmeshed with other states, it has less reason to consider economic costs and business interests that come with escalatory policies. On the other hand, China may already be set on decoupling regardless of what other states do.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

None of this is to say that decision-makers should or should not pursue decoupling. Advocates of decoupling argue there are immense long-term economic costs and <\/span>security risks<\/span><\/a> of remaining enmeshed with China. They also point out that economic cooperation with like-minded partners (for instance between the U.S. and South Korea) can offset some of these costs.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But economic costs, security interests, supply-chain stability and the long-term health of global markets are all crucial considerations. None of the paths into the future come without risk. Whichever path nations take, they should not do so without these considerations in mind.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/em><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In recent months, decoupling \u2014 or reducing dependence on other countries \u2014 has been a much-talked-about activity for South Korean lawmakers. 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