{"id":2199514,"date":"2022-11-21T10:27:43","date_gmt":"2022-11-21T10:27:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199514"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:10:57","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:10:57","slug":"as-reunification-hopes-fade-south-koreans-favor-us-alliance-more-than-ever","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/11\/as-reunification-hopes-fade-south-koreans-favor-us-alliance-more-than-ever\/","title":{"rendered":"As reunification hopes fade, South Koreans favor US alliance more than ever"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tensions are once again rising on the Korean Peninsula, a reality most recently underscored by North Korea\u2019s successful test launch of a <\/span>Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile<\/span><\/a>, and through it all, the South Korean public has remained calm.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the rising tensions provide a good opportunity to take stock of where the South Korean public stands on related issues, from general attitudes toward the DPRK and attitudes on the alliance with the U.S. to a potential nuclear weapons program.<\/span><\/p>\n

And what a decade of polling shows is that the ROK public\u2019s views toward Pyongyang have hardened and hopes for unification are dying off, while once widespread skepticism of Washington has given way to the belief that U.S. forces have a role to play on the peninsula for the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Former U.S. President Donald Trump and former South Korean President Moon Jae-in with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un at the Korean Demilitarized Zone, June 30, 2019. | Image: Shealah Craighead via Trump White House Archived Flickr<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

VIEWS OF \u201cTHE OTHER\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n

For much of the past three decades, the normative position in both the North and South has been that unification can and should happen because the populations on either side of the 38th parallel are one people. But that view has to come into question, at least in South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

In polling conducted <\/span>in 2021<\/span><\/a> by the Asan Institute, just 21% of ROK citizens endorsed the idea that North Koreans are \u201cone of us.\u201d In 2012, that number was 32%. At the same time, views of North Korea as an \u201cenemy\u201d are on the rise: 26% in 2021, compared to 19% in 2012, according to the Asan survey.<\/span><\/p>\n

These views suggest a weakening philosophical underpinning for unification, and data from other <\/span>surveys<\/span><\/a> conducted by the Korea Institute for National Unification helps confirm that more and more South Koreans are unconvinced that unification is necessary. In 2021, a record-high 57% preferred peaceful coexistence, up from 43% when the question was asked in 2016. Just 25% opted for unification in 2021, down from 37% in 2016.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The growing belief that separation from the North is permanent and\/or desirable also leads to important questions about South Korea\u2019s defense, especially as few South Koreans now think North Korea will denuclearize. From 2010 to 2017, <\/span>polling conducted by the Asan Institute<\/span><\/a> found greater than 90% said the chances of denuclearization were low.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Polling in 2021 by <\/span>the Chicago Council<\/span><\/a> had a similar finding: 83% said it was unlikely that North Korea would give up its nuclear weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

These numbers put a fine point on South Korea\u2019s national security. Not only is the division of the Korean Peninsula increasingly seen as intractable, but South Koreans strongly believe that they will be facing a nuclear-armed North Korea for the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. President Joe Biden walking with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at the National Museum of Korea in South Korea, May 21, 2022. | Image: Adam Schultz via The White House Flickr<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

USFK AND SECURITY GUARANTEES<\/b><\/p>\n

It was not long ago that South Korea <\/span>was known<\/span><\/a> for its strong anti-American sentiment, sometimes leading to widespread protests against U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). That is now largely a thing of the past.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korean attitudes towards the U.S. and USFK have been strongly positive since at least 2010, if not earlier. Most polls find support for the alliance with the U.S. at 85% or greater.<\/span><\/p>\n

A <\/span>2020 poll<\/span><\/a> put that number at 90%. But that support goes beyond simply favorable views of the U.S. Three-quarters (74%) specifically<\/span> support the long-term stationing<\/span><\/a> of U.S. soldiers in South Korea. And more broadly, <\/span>three-quarters<\/span><\/a> of South Koreans (74%) said USFK increases stability in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the focus on the security side of the relationship, both American and South Korean leaders continue to say that the alliance has outgrown its sole focus on defense and now incorporates a comprehensive range of interests.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That message seems to have sunk in with the Korean public. Nearly two-thirds (64%) say the alliance with the U.S. is <\/span>mutually beneficial<\/span><\/a>, and a 2021 survey from the Chicago Council found <\/span>a majority of South Koreans<\/span><\/a> (54%) think the alliance with the U.S. is based on the security interests of both countries and on shared values of democracy and human rights.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps because of this more extensive alliance relationship, there is also high confidence that the U.S. would come to the defense of South Korea. A <\/span>2020 poll<\/span><\/a> found that 82% of South Koreans thought the U.S. would defend Seoul if it were attacked.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The U.S. and ROK joint air exercise “Vigilant Storm” involving the U.S.’s B-1B bombers and ROK’s F-35A fighter jets | Image: Staff Sergeant Dwane Young via United States Forces Korea<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

NUCLEAR WEAPONS<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite public confidence in the alliance with the U.S., recent tensions with North Korea have refocused the conversation in South Korea surrounding nuclear weapons.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Most of this discussion has focused on the redeployment of U.S. tactical nukes, with a smaller group arguing in favor of South Korea pursuing its own nuclear weapons program. In undertaking the conversation, politicians and defense experts will find a public that is already supportive of both options.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

First, support for a domestic nuclear weapons program remains high. In <\/span>2022 polling<\/span><\/a> conducted by the Asan Institute, 70% favored a domestic nuclear weapons program. And in <\/span>2021 Chicago Council polling<\/span><\/a>, 71% stated that they support a domestic nuclear weapons program. That included 67% of Democratic Party supporters and 82% of People Party Power supporters.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These results are roughly in line with polling on the subject over the past decade. In polling conducted by the Asan Institute <\/span>in 2012<\/span><\/a>, two-thirds (66%) of the public said the same.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, though a majority of South Koreans support putting U.S. tactical nuclear weapons on the peninsula, the level of support has declined slightly in the past decade. <\/span>In 2013<\/span><\/a>, 67% supported redeploying U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea. That support has slowly eroded in the intervening decade: When the question was asked in 2022, 59% stated support.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But as Chicago Council polling shows, the public has a clear preference between the two options. When asked to choose directly between the two \u2014 a domestic weapons program or the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons \u2014 the result was a landslide: 67% support a domestic program versus just 9% that favor U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Looking ahead, support for a nuclear-armed South Korea will likely grow domestically. The growth in that support will result from two concomitant developments.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

First, the regional security environment will continue to deteriorate as U.S.-China competition becomes more serious, and North Korea continues to develop its weapons and delivery systems.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As that happens, South Korean politicians from both major parties \u2014 albeit for different reasons \u2014 will become more openly vocal in their support of a nuclear weapons program. As they do, South Koreans from both sides of the political aisle will find a common purpose.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tensions are once again rising on the Korean Peninsula, a reality most recently underscored by North Korea\u2019s successful test launch of a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, and through it all, the South Korean public has remained calm. 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