{"id":2199471,"date":"2022-11-14T11:28:54","date_gmt":"2022-11-14T11:28:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199471"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:10:59","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:10:59","slug":"what-the-us-midterm-results-mean-for-south-koreas-security-and-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/11\/what-the-us-midterm-results-mean-for-south-koreas-security-and-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"What the US midterm results mean for South Korea’s security and economy"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the results of the U.S. midterms come into focus, it seems likely that the same America First foreign policy will continue to undergird the White House\u2019s international decision-making.<\/span><\/p>\n

Far from the \u201c<\/span>red wave<\/span><\/a>\u201d many predicted beforehand, the Republicans appear to have eeked out the narrowest of majorities in the House while losing the Senate. U.S. allies like South Korea are watching these unexpected results and considering the unpredictability of voters in several states as Seoul attempts to prepare for the 2024 presidential election.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In the meantime, the Biden administration will likely continue to see Asia as mostly a battleground in which it must outcompete China on trade, technology and military capabilities. But <\/span>observers say<\/span><\/a> the White House is sorely lacking detail or foresight in other areas of foreign policy, from nuclear negotiations with North Korea and Iran to bolstering economic cooperation with allies and advancing climate action.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a campaign rally in Arizona, March 19 2016. | Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr<\/a> (CC BY-SA 2.0<\/a>)<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

SECURITY ASSURANCES<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s biggest long-term concern has been security. Donald Trump pushed the U.S.-ROK alliance to the brink by entertaining <\/span>unilateral withdrawal<\/span><\/a> from the peninsula, demanding <\/span>billions more<\/span><\/a> from the South Korean side to pay for boots on the ground and <\/span>openly disparaging<\/span><\/a> joint military activity.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Biden secured a multi-year <\/span>cost-sharing agreement<\/span><\/a> with Seoul at a much lower price than sought by his predecessor, a lack of interest in North Korea has calcified the White House\u2019s peninsula policies and put the U.S. in a poor position for a breakthrough, according to Kim Byung-joo at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact that the Biden administration continues to talk about denuclearization seems to indicate that they don’t have a way out or a formula to resolve the North Korea issue,\u201d the professor of international relations told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i>. \u201cThe goal of their policy is unchanged from some 25 years ago despite the fact that North Korea’s nuclear capability has changed.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

North Korea has fired more missiles <\/span>in the last two months<\/span><\/a> than it has in entire calender years, sending short- to long-range ballistic missiles <\/span>over Japan<\/span><\/a> and south of the <\/span>inter-Korean maritime border<\/span><\/a>. The DPRK army also continues to test <\/span>intercontinental ballistic missile technology<\/span><\/a> theoretically capable of delivering nuclear warheads to the U.S. mainland.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim Jae-chun, dean of Sogang University\u2019s Graduate School of International Studies, argued last week that provocations of this sort will likely continue because intensifying competition between the U.S. and China \u201cworks to the advantage of North Korea.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe strategic value of North Korea has increased for autocratic countries. North Korea is trying to solidify its status as a nuclear power by firing missiles over and over again, counting on the support of China and Russia,\u201d Kim <\/span>wrote in an op-ed<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

What this means is that so long as China clouds out other considerations, nuances and directions for U.S. foreign policy, there is little mandate for the Biden administration to push past the status quo in East Asia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Nor does he have the strength in Congress to sustain momentum for any new \u201cpivot\u201d toward the region \u2014 even after a <\/span>widely anticipated<\/span><\/a> seventh North Korea nuclear test. This is demonstrated over recent friction within Biden\u2019s own Democratic Party about the merits of long-term support for Ukraine, a <\/span>concerning development<\/span><\/a> for U.S. allies not only in Europe but also in Northeast Asia at a time when there are <\/span>lingering doubts<\/span><\/a> about Washington\u2019s extended deterrence commitments.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cAs U.S. domestic sentiment turns more and more inwardly oriented and nationalistic, doubts over extended deterrence will be raised continuously, with greater calls for self-defense measures\u201d among allied countries, Kim of Hankuk University said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. President Joe Biden attending the opening ceremony for the Maccabiah Games on July 14, 2022. | Image: Adam Schultz via The White House Flickr<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

POLITE PROTECTIONISM<\/b><\/p>\n

The midterm results also amplify questions about how and whether the U.S. domestic political and economic situation creates the right incentives for Biden to sustain multipolar rules-based global trade and economic security. America\u2019s trading partners have remarked that <\/span>little has changed<\/span><\/a> since the days of Trump \u201cripping up trade agreements\u201d and slapping trade restrictions on foreign businesses.<\/span><\/p>\n

While urging allies to join its economic initiatives such as the Chip 4 alliance and inducing large tech and auto companies to invest billions in American factories and jobs, the Biden administration has not offered broader access to the U.S. market or specific details on economic cooperation. <\/span>Transatlantic<\/span><\/a> and Asian allies have complained that the administration\u2019s \u201cBuy American\u201d initiatives are <\/span>damaging to their manufacturing industries<\/span><\/a> and breach World Trade Organisation rules.<\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>Inflation Reduction Act<\/span><\/a> (IRA), for example, immediately disqualified federal tax credits for electric vehicles made outside North America, leading to <\/span>outrage in South Korea, Europe, and Japan<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Feeling misled by Washington\u2019s <\/span>\u201cfriend-shoring<\/span><\/a>\u201d policy, Seoul, Brussels and Tokyo have <\/span>pressed Washington<\/span><\/a> to revise the IRA, hoping for an easing of provisions once the midterm elections were over, or a breakthrough with the backing of <\/span>Republicans<\/span><\/a> who generally oppose the Democrat-driven initiative.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the Republicans flipping the House, \u201cthere may be some room for policy adjustment, but the pressure and lobby from U.S. domestic automakers and auto workers would be equally strong, said Kim of Hankuk University.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cho Seong-dae, director of Trade Studies and Cooperation at the Korea International Trade Association, told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that he envisions more U.S. protectionism in the future. According to him, outcompeting China and building up domestic production in key industries are rare points of agreement across the aisle in Congress.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe U.S. president and the U.S. Congress will likely strengthen their own industries until they don\u2019t regard China as a threat,\u201d Cho said.<\/span><\/p>\n

As the midterms give way to the next presidential race, American foreign policy looks set to stay on familiar<\/span> terrain<\/span><\/a>, without significant changes, as the rest of Biden\u2019s term is consumed by <\/span>Congressional standoffs<\/span><\/a>, Republican-led <\/span>investigations<\/span><\/a> and repairing low approval ratings among the American public.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea and other allies will be reading every tea leaf for hints about <\/span>who may win<\/span><\/a> in 2024. But until then (and perhaps after), U.S. domestic politics will <\/span>remain<\/span><\/a> a cause of anxiety and uncertainty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/em><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the results of the U.S. midterms come into focus, it seems likely that the same America First foreign policy will continue to undergird the White House\u2019s international decision-making. Far from the \u201cred wave\u201d many predicted beforehand, the Republicans appear to have eeked out the narrowest of majorities in the House while losing the Senate. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10207,"featured_media":2199474,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[27,28],"class_list":["post-2199471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-domestic-politics","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nWhat the US midterm results mean for South Korea's security and economy - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/11\/what-the-us-midterm-results-mean-for-south-koreas-security-and-economy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What the US midterm results mean for South Korea's security and economy - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As the results of the U.S. midterms come into focus, it seems likely that the same America First foreign policy will continue to undergird the White House\u2019s international decision-making. 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