{"id":2199359,"date":"2022-11-08T02:04:50","date_gmt":"2022-11-08T02:04:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199359"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:11:01","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:11:01","slug":"polls-indicate-public-may-blame-local-authorities-for-itaewon-tragedy-not-yoon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/11\/polls-indicate-public-may-blame-local-authorities-for-itaewon-tragedy-not-yoon\/","title":{"rendered":"Polls indicate public may blame local authorities for Itaewon tragedy, not Yoon"},"content":{"rendered":"

The deaths of <\/span>156 people<\/span><\/a> at Halloween festivities in Itaewon on Oct. 29 have shocked South Korea. The government declared a week of mourning, officials at government agencies largely wore black and many affixed a piece of black fabric to their lapels. But before the mourning week was out, the political fallout began \u2014 as did attempts to assign blame.<\/span><\/p>\n

Almost immediately a battle began to define the language that would be used to describe the Itaewon crowd crush. While those in the ruling People Power Party took to calling it the \u201cItaewon accident,\u201d those on the progressive side opted for \u201cItaewon tragedy.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The following weekend, thousands gathered for vigils across the city with the main gathering <\/span>near Seoul City Hall<\/span><\/a>. Many at these protests blamed the government for the events that unfolded in Itaewon. Some polling ostensibly supports that sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n

In one widely circulated result from the outlet <\/span>News Tomato<\/span><\/i>, <\/span>73 percent<\/span><\/a> said the Yoon administration and local authorities were responsible for the events in Itaewon. Of course, <\/span>News Tomato<\/span><\/i> is not a well-known pollster, and the results suffer from two key problems.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

First, the methodology is conducted using an automated response system (ARS) rather than a live interviewer. This same type of polling ahead of the presidential election produced inaccurate results in predicting the winner of the election.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, and more importantly, the question itself suffers from classic <\/span>double-barreling<\/span><\/a>. The question wording includes reference to both the administration and local authorities as holding responsibility. It is thus impossible to tell specifically who respondents think are to blame.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Looking at other, more reliable, polling results suggests that the public is placing the lion\u2019s share of the blame on local authorities and not the administration. A look back at past polls helps to explain.<\/span><\/p>\n

Following Yoon\u2019s late September <\/span>diplomatic trip that went awry<\/span><\/a>, Yoon\u2019s approval shed 9 percentage points, from 33% to 24%, over two weeks. It initially dropped five points in the immediate aftermath and then four points the following week. Given the nature of events in Itaewon, a similar drop would not have been surprising if the public thought the Yoon administration was at fault.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the <\/span>most recent Gallup Korea polling<\/span><\/a> found Yoon\u2019s approval remains flat, moving from 30% approval last week to 29% now. Importantly, his approval rates among age cohorts and party supporters were also largely unchanged. The poll was conducted Nov. 1-3, meaning all respondents are likely to have been aware of the deaths and injuries in Itaewon.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Polling from <\/span>the National Barometer Survey<\/span><\/a>, conducted Oct. 31 to Nov. 2, found similar results. And so did <\/span>results from RealMeter<\/span><\/a>, conducted Oct. 31 to Nov. 4.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These findings suggest two things. First, Yoon\u2019s support is already near its natural floor, and those that still support him are likely to do so unless further evidence directly implicates the administration in the failed response to the events of Oct. 29. Second, the polling taken as a whole suggests the public largely blames local authorities \u2014 not the Yoon administration \u2014 for the tragedy in Itaewon.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, Yoon may find an opportunity in the disaster.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the investigations to follow, Yoon will have the chance to hold the police to account, positioning himself as delivering justice for the many young people that died in Itaewon. He will likely be extra-motivated to do so given that his predecessor sought to <\/span>empower the police<\/span><\/a> at the expense of the prosecution before leaving office.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The tragedy will allow Yoon to question the wisdom of that decision, potentially propelling his administration moving forward rather than dragging it down.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The deaths of 156 people at Halloween festivities in Itaewon on Oct. 29 have shocked South Korea. The government declared a week of mourning, officials at government agencies largely wore black and many affixed a piece of black fabric to their lapels. 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