{"id":2199257,"date":"2022-10-26T07:39:19","date_gmt":"2022-10-26T07:39:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2199257"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:11:05","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:11:05","slug":"south-korean-banks-are-wildly-undervalued-foreign-investors-should-take-a-look","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/10\/south-korean-banks-are-wildly-undervalued-foreign-investors-should-take-a-look\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korean banks are wildly undervalued. Foreign investors should take a look."},"content":{"rendered":"

Both the South Korean won and the stock market have been pummeled over the past year. The former currently stands at around 1,430 to the U.S. dollar, nearly reaching levels last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) hovers between 2,200 and 2,300, down from a <\/span>peak<\/span><\/a> of around 3,300 last June.<\/span><\/p>\n

Taken together, this means Korea is on sale from the perspective of those operating in U.S. dollars. For example, the <\/span>most popular<\/span><\/a> South Korean exchange-traded fund with international investors, iShares MSCI Korea (ticker symbol: EWY), is down by <\/span>almost half<\/span><\/a> from a peak of $96 in Jan. 2021 to $50.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is arguably not even a <\/span>value trap<\/span><\/a> situation, in which future earnings decline to the point where stocks are revealed to have been cheap for good reason. According to Yardeni Research, the <\/span>forward price-to-earnings<\/span><\/a> (P\/E) ratio of Korean stocks <\/span>stands at 8.9<\/span><\/a> as of Oct. 19, which is low compared to other countries as well as Korean historical standards.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Unless analyst expectations of future profits are completely off base, South Korea looks like a bargain.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a group, the cheapest stocks of all are financials. And a closer look at their numbers and at the political environment in which they operate indicates that they are both wildly undervalued and unlikely to fail, suggesting they warrant greater consideration from outside investors.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Citibank Visa credit card | Image: Yunho Lee via Flickr<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

\u2018NEVER ALLOWED TO FAIL\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n

Korea has four main banking groups: Woori, Shinhan, KB and Hana. Among these, Shinhan has the highest P\/E ratio at a measly 4.44, while Woori has the lowest at 2.88, according to the <\/span>Naver Finance portal<\/span><\/a>. (This author owns shares in Woori Bank.)<\/span><\/p>\n

On a price-to-book value basis \u2014 one of the most significant measures in the eyes of bank stock analysts \u2014 all four are between 0.3 and 0.4. By comparison, <\/span>JPMorgan Chase<\/span><\/a> is 1.4 and <\/span>Wells Fargo<\/span><\/a> at just over 1.<\/span><\/p>\n

The book value of a company is essentially the net assets on its balance sheet, so theoretically if a company were to be liquidated, the book value is what would be left to return to shareholders.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At the end of last year, Woori had a book value of <\/span>35,494 won per share<\/span><\/a>. As of Oct. 26, Woori <\/span>stands<\/span><\/a> at 11,550 won. As a result, some of the most <\/span>comments<\/span><\/a> about Woori and other banking stocks on <\/span>Korean finance forums<\/span><\/a> are sarcastic requests for the CEO to just close the firms down and return their net assets to shareholders.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Korean banks are priced for pain. To be sure, there are question marks around the housing market (which has <\/span>been falling<\/span><\/a> as interest rate rises start to bite) and the <\/span>high level of household debt<\/span><\/a> in Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But the banks are well capitalized, unlike during past crises. The Bank of International Settlements\u2019 (BIS) capital adequacy ratio for KB in the second quarter was <\/span>17.4%<\/span><\/a>, and the industry average was <\/span>16.4%<\/span><\/a>, far above the <\/span>8% minimum<\/span><\/a> set by the third Basel Accord.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A <\/span>Sept. 2022 report by ING<\/span><\/a> states that the overall level of non-performing loans at Korean banks is a \u201chistorically low\u201d 0.16% and that the \u201cdelinquency rate is low and manageable.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Stock market | Image: Pixabay<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

An investment manager at Korea Investment Corporation (KIC), who requested anonymity as a government employee not authorized to speak to the media, told <\/span>Korea Pro <\/span><\/i>that Korean banks are solid and will \u201cnever fail or even be allowed to fail.\u201d The one note of caution the manager offered is that the government tends to keep banks on a tight leash in terms of regulation, making the likes of KB and Woori unlikely to ever turn into innovative high-growth stars.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There is also a certain amount of political pressure on banks to be generous with their small business lending, people in the field have told the author. But again, the level of delinquency is low, suggesting this is not so much of a problem.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The KIC manager singled out Shinhan Bank as the one bank among the main four less subject to government pressure, since the other three have at one point been at least partly state-owned and still have a legacy of such influence.<\/span><\/p>\n

The state also sets guidelines on what proportion of profits a bank can pay out in dividends. For last year\u2019s final dividend, the figure was 26%. Shareholders may wish for more, of course, but one may also see this as the government strong-arming banks into being better capitalized and better able to survive in the event of crisis. From a long-term perspective, this may not be so bad.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And considering the absurdly low valuations of Korean bank stocks, dividends are extremely high even in absolute terms, in spite of the cap. <\/span>Analysts expect<\/span><\/a> Woori to pay a dividend of 1,068 won per share this year, meaning a dividend yield of nearly 9.3% at the current price. Shinhan, considered the best managed and most independent of the major banks, should pay 6.6%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, the banks\u2019 <\/span>net interest margin<\/span><\/a> \u2014 the difference between the interest paid by a bank and the interest income it earns \u2014 has been rising. This is the typical result in an environment of rising interest rates, so assuming the U.S. Federal Reserve is <\/span>not done raising rates<\/span><\/a> yet, the Bank of Korea will also have to follow, and the margins that Korean banks enjoy will stay generous.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Politicians and media here sometimes <\/span>complain<\/span><\/a> about banks making record profits at a time when most others are suffering. But from a cold-blooded investment perspective, it is a mystery why the stock prices of Korean banks have not risen in reflection of this.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Unless the coming global recession causes existential trouble to the Korean economy \u2014 which seems unlikely \u2014 their stock prices may not remain so low in the long term.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Both the South Korean won and the stock market have been pummeled over the past year. The former currently stands at around 1,430 to the U.S. dollar, nearly reaching levels last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) hovers between 2,200 and 2,300, down from a peak of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10207,"featured_media":2199264,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-2199257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korean banks are wildly undervalued. 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