{"id":2198967,"date":"2022-09-15T09:57:31","date_gmt":"2022-09-15T09:57:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2198967"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:11:36","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:11:36","slug":"south-korea-has-to-follow-us-on-russia-but-risks-economic-and-security-fallout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/09\/south-korea-has-to-follow-us-on-russia-but-risks-economic-and-security-fallout\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea has to follow US on Russia, but risks economic and security fallout"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korea might not like it, but its gradual falling out with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and Moscow\u2019s subsequent isolation from the West is all but inevitable.<\/span><\/p>\n

The country\u2019s trade with Russia, which essentially <\/span>grew from the ground up<\/span><\/a> from the end of the Cold War, is <\/span>on the decline<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

After initially <\/span>dragging its feet<\/span><\/a> on joining sanctions following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine \u2014 apparently in an attempt to salvage this once burgeoning relationship \u2014 Seoul finally acquiesced, to which Moscow responded by labeling South Korea as an <\/span>\u201cunfriendly\u201d state<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

This fallout looks set to impact South Korean trade and security, since Russia is rewarding North Korea for being <\/span>one of the few countries<\/span><\/a> that stood by it after the start of the war.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, even though South Korea isn\u2019t taking the extra step and <\/span>supplying weapons<\/span><\/a> to Ukraine, the war has opened up opportunities for it to sell arms to Europe at large after it was shaken by Russian aggression.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korea has been cautious but supported U.S.-led measures against Russia | Image: The White House<\/a> (May 21, 2022)<\/p><\/div>\n

THE RELUCTANT ALLY<\/b><\/p>\n

The good news for the U.S. and Europe is that, at the end of the day, South Korea will join initiatives to pressure Russia, however reluctantly.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the beginning of September, the G7 agreed to <\/span>cap the price of Russian oil<\/span><\/a> in order to reduce Moscow\u2019s ability to fund its war in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Soon after, Russian President Vladimir Putin <\/span>threatened<\/span><\/a> to stop sending energy to countries participating in the price cap. Georgy Zinoviev \u2014 the head of the Russian foreign ministry\u2019s First Asia Department, which oversees relations with China, Mongolia and both Koreas \u2014 <\/span>warned<\/span><\/a> that Seoul would face \u201cserious\u201d economic consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea has little reason not to join the oil price cap, and <\/span>already said it would do so<\/span><\/a> during U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen\u2019s visit to Seoul in July.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, South Korea is a U.S. ally. But even though the resource-deficient country imports most of its energy, it only got <\/span>around 5%<\/span><\/a> of its crude oil from Russia before the war anyway. Since May this year, Russian crude oil has <\/span>dropped<\/span><\/a> to 1% of South Korea\u2019s total intake.<\/span><\/p>\n

More than the oil cap\u2019s impact on Russian imports themselves, though, South Korea is <\/span>concerned<\/span><\/a> about the impact that the restrictions and Moscow\u2019s potential retaliatory measures will have on global prices.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts in July, oil prices could rise to <\/span>$380 a barrel<\/span><\/a> in the worst-case scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n

This means that, although South Korea will abide by <\/span>whatever oil cap is agreed on<\/span><\/a>, it will likely press for the least harsh measures on Russia behind the scenes. While rising prices impact everyone, Seoul\u2019s <\/span>bare-minimum<\/span><\/a> efforts<\/span><\/a> in joining the U.S.-led pressure campaign on Moscow suggests that the ROK is more concerned about protecting its economic interests than getting Russia out of Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are a <\/span>few opportunities<\/span><\/a> for South Korea to voice its concerns over the coming months, including at the upcoming U.N. General Assembly that <\/span>President Yoon Suk-yeol is attending<\/span><\/a>. A decision on the price cap <\/span>might be made<\/span><\/a> by the G20 summit in mid-November.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Russia and North Korea have grown closer since the war in Ukraine | Image: President of Russia<\/a> (April 25, 2019)<\/p><\/div>\n

RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA COOPERATION<\/b><\/p>\n

While the war in Ukraine may not directly impact South Korea\u2019s physical security yet, Russia\u2019s isolation following the invasion has driven it closer to Pyongyang.<\/span><\/p>\n

Following the invasion in February, North Korea was one of the only countries in the world that <\/span>supported Moscow<\/span><\/a>. In return, the Kim regime seems to have <\/span>secured<\/span><\/a> Russia\u2019s <\/span>veto<\/span><\/a> at the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) against efforts to ramp up sanctions pressure in response to the DPRK\u2019s nuclear and missile program.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This weakens South Korea\u2019s efforts to deter the North from conducting <\/span>another nuclear test<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let alone supporting additional sanctions, Moscow is apparently <\/span>encouraging<\/span><\/a> North Korea to send laborers abroad again to help reconstruction efforts in the Russia-backed breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine. This is despite the 2017 UNSC resolution, which Russia itself signed on to, <\/span>banning North Koreans from working abroad<\/span><\/a> since 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

On top of this, North Korea is <\/span>reportedly<\/span><\/a> sending Russia ammunition. While it\u2019s unclear what Pyongyang gets in return, fuel or funds will inevitably help prop up the Kim regime. A high-ranking Russian official said last week that the country was ready to <\/span>increase oil supplies<\/span><\/a> to the DPRK.<\/span><\/p>\n

Russian military aircraft, sometimes along with Chinese planes, also put Seoul on edge by making intrusions into South Korea\u2019s air defense zone from time to time.<\/span><\/p>\n

This often happened <\/span>before the war in Ukraine<\/span><\/a> as well. But as the Yoon administration strives to <\/span>bolster its<\/span><\/a> military relationship<\/span><\/a> with the U.S. in response to the rapidly evolving threat from North Korea as well as China, there\u2019s the risk that Moscow and Beijing will intensify these exercises if concern grows about the U.S. using the peninsula as a base for <\/span>other purposes<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korea\u2019s Hyundai Rotem recently concluded a large arms deal with Poland | Image: \ub300\ud55c\ubbfc\uad6d \uad6d\uad70 Republic of Korea Armed Forces<\/a> (Feb. 22, 2016)<\/p><\/div>\n

ARMING EUROPE<\/b><\/p>\n

While it\u2019s reluctant to send weapons to Kyiv \u2014 <\/span>likely to avoid<\/span><\/a> a serious response from Moscow \u2014 there is an opportunity for South Korean arms manufacturers to sell their wares to Europe.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s Hyundai Rotem recently concluded a <\/span>multi-billion dollar arms deal<\/span><\/a> with Poland, which has been a major supplier of weapons to Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

While this was part of Poland\u2019s <\/span>modernization plan<\/span><\/a> from back in Oct. 2019, it has made a dramatic entry into the European market, becoming <\/span>only the second company<\/span><\/a> from a country outside NATO to sign a major arms deal with a NATO member.<\/span><\/p>\n

Successfully pulling this deal off could <\/span>open the door to more business<\/span><\/a> with other European countries seeking to bolster their defenses in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

This helps put the Yoon administration on its way to achieving its goal of becoming one of the world\u2019s <\/span>top four weapons suppliers<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

And since Russia apparently hasn\u2019t protested South Korea\u2019s deal with Poland, there\u2019s even less reason for Seoul not to push for similar arrangements with others in the region.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As one South Korean <\/span>foreign affairs official<\/span><\/a> framed it, \u201cit\u2019s just a defense business deal.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korea might not like it, but its gradual falling out with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and Moscow\u2019s subsequent isolation from the West is all but inevitable. The country\u2019s trade with Russia, which essentially grew from the ground up from the end of the Cold War, is on the decline. After initially dragging […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7824,"featured_media":2198968,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24,26,28],"class_list":["post-2198967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea has to follow US on Russia, but risks economic and security fallout - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/09\/south-korea-has-to-follow-us-on-russia-but-risks-economic-and-security-fallout\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea has to follow US on Russia, but risks economic and security fallout - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korea might not like it, but its gradual falling out with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and Moscow\u2019s subsequent isolation from the West is all but inevitable. The country\u2019s trade with Russia, which essentially grew from the ground up from the end of the Cold War, is on the decline. 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