{"id":2198865,"date":"2022-09-02T09:38:37","date_gmt":"2022-09-02T09:38:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/koreapro\/?p=2198865"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:11:40","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:11:40","slug":"try-as-it-might-south-korea-cant-escape-tensions-over-taiwan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/09\/try-as-it-might-south-korea-cant-escape-tensions-over-taiwan\/","title":{"rendered":"Try as it might, South Korea can\u2019t escape tensions over Taiwan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Try as it might, South Korea\u2019s military relationship with the U.S. means that it can\u2019t escape the fallout of current tensions over Taiwan.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s increasing assertiveness in the Taiwan Strait has raised concerns that it might only be a matter of time before Beijing makes its move. <\/span>In response<\/span><\/a> to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi\u2019s Taipei trip last month, China fired missiles near the island and simulated a blockade of Taiwan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Adm. Philip Davidson, former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, famously said last year that China could even launch its invasion <\/span>by 2027<\/span><\/a>. Some think that <\/span>declining demographics and economic growth<\/span><\/a> might push Xi Jinping to believe that it\u2019s now or never to achieve unification.<\/span><\/p>\n

2027 would also mark the end of Xi\u2019s <\/span>third term in power<\/span><\/a>. While he <\/span>eliminated term limits<\/span><\/a> in 2018, he would be <\/span>pushing his mid-70s<\/span><\/a> by the end of a third term and nearly 80 if he took a fourth. Perhaps he wants to cement his legacy as the leader who took Taiwan before it\u2019s too late not only for China but also for himself.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, such a move could be disastrous for China, potentially bringing it into conflict with the U.S. But Vladimir Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine also took the world by surprise, suggesting it would be unwise to discount the possibility of a Taiwan invasion.<\/span><\/p>\n

But while Washington\u2019s \u201cstrategic ambiguity\u201d on whether it would defend its fellow democracy <\/span>appears less ambiguous<\/span><\/a> these days, Seoul seems to be <\/span>distancing itself<\/span><\/a> from the U.S.-China rivalry as much as possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

After receiving a warm welcome in Taiwan and Japan, Pelosi was <\/span>snubbed<\/span><\/a> by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, only receiving a phone call instead of an in-person meeting. Seoul didn\u2019t even send a delegation to greet Pelosi on arrival and avoided talking about Taiwan during her visit.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration is in a tricky position. Its lukewarm reception for Pelosi was likely out of fear of angering China, its largest trading partner.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, South Korea\u2019s military ties with the U.S. and conflict with North Korea put it in a particularly dangerous position should something kick off on the other side of the East China Sea.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. General Paul LaCamera has hinted at a role for South Korea \u201cbeyond the Korean Peninsula\u201d | Image: UNC – CFC – USFK<\/a> (April 7, 2022)<\/p><\/div>\n

BATTLEGROUND KOREA<\/b><\/p>\n

As China\u2019s military drills in response to Pelosi\u2019s visit showed, South Korea risks being sucked into a conflict over Taiwan, whether it wants to be or not.<\/span><\/p>\n

China conducted some of these exercises <\/span>near South Korean waters<\/span><\/a>, and Washington sent a U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) <\/span>reconnaissance plane<\/span><\/a> from the peninsula to the Taiwan Strait.<\/span><\/p>\n

Behind the scenes, the U.S. might be trying to convince South Korea to take a larger role in regional security initiatives.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ahead of his confirmation as USFK commander in May 2021, General Paul LaCamera <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> that the U.S.-ROK alliance \u201cis, and should remain, squarely focused on the immediate threat from North Korea.\u201d However, he added that \u201cthe Alliance constantly updates its posture and plans as the security environment evolves\u201d and that \u201copportunities are emerging for Alliance cooperation beyond the Korean Peninsula.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

At the beginning of this year, former USFK commander General Robert Abrams <\/span>urged<\/span><\/a> the allies to address the threat from China in their new operational war plans (OPLANs).<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul might be able to get away with not making too much of a commitment in a contingency against China, since it can cite the need to maintain military readiness against the more immediate threat from North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the continued involvement of USFK in Taiwan increases the likelihood that South Korea will come under pressure from China to limit its military ties with the U.S. once again, and perhaps come under threat of another round of <\/span>damaging economic boycotts<\/span><\/a> as a result.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even though it\u2019s probably reluctant to get involved in Taiwan itself, it seems Seoul wants the U.S. to help defend the island in a conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n

While dodging the issue of whether the country would send its own soldiers, a South Korean official reportedly <\/span>told <\/span>Axios<\/span><\/i><\/a> in June that abandoning Taiwan would cause Seoul to doubt the U.S. commitment to its own security.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, the U.S. commitment to Taiwan isn\u2019t a perfect comparison to its alliance with the ROK.<\/span><\/p>\n

But even the messy withdrawal from Afghanistan last year <\/span>shook the confidence<\/span><\/a> of some South Koreans. Washington refraining from direct military involvement in Ukraine only <\/span>reignited debate<\/span><\/a> about South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons \u2014 just to make sure it can defend itself if its ally gets cold feet in the face of the threat from the DPRK\u2019s long-range nukes.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

North Korea could take the opportunity of a crisis in Taiwan to conduct more weapons tests | Image: Rodong Sinmun (March 25, 2022)<\/p><\/div>\n

THE TWO KOREAS AND TAIWAN<\/b><\/p>\n

The potential for North Korea to carry out more missile and nuclear tests during a conflict over Taiwan is another cause for concern.<\/span><\/p>\n

China would be in no position to oppose, since it would likely welcome DPRK support after finding itself isolated on the international stage, <\/span>\u00e0 la Russia<\/span><\/a> after its invasion of Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Giving Pyongyang room to test its weapons would also ramp up tensions on the peninsula, ensuring that USFK resources remain tied there.<\/span><\/p>\n

These tests will help North Korea bolster its weapons capabilities, strengthening its position both militarily and at the negotiating table with South Korea and the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, China is likely to regard South Korea more and more as a potential base of U.S. military operations for Taiwan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington and Seoul have <\/span>agreed<\/span><\/a> to deploy U.S. strategic assets on the peninsula if North Korea conducts another nuclear test. South Korea maintains that this, like talk of <\/span>further deployment<\/span><\/a> of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, is in response to the North\u2019s ever-evolving weapons capabilities. But that won\u2019t do much to allay Beijing\u2019s concerns.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration is on the U.S. side at the end of the day. But far from taking the firm stance against Beijing that Washington would like, South Korea is going to drag its feet on anything that could upset China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Try as it might, South Korea\u2019s military relationship with the U.S. means that it can\u2019t escape the fallout of current tensions over Taiwan. China\u2019s increasing assertiveness in the Taiwan Strait has raised concerns that it might only be a matter of time before Beijing makes its move. In response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7824,"featured_media":2198866,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2198865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nTry as it might, South Korea can\u2019t escape tensions over Taiwan - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/09\/try-as-it-might-south-korea-cant-escape-tensions-over-taiwan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Try as it might, South Korea can\u2019t escape tensions over Taiwan - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Try as it might, South Korea\u2019s military relationship with the U.S. means that it can\u2019t escape the fallout of current tensions over Taiwan. 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