{"id":2198627,"date":"2022-08-29T17:42:55","date_gmt":"2022-08-29T08:42:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2198627"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:11:42","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:11:42","slug":"what-a-trump-comeback-would-mean-for-south-koreas-reset-with-the-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/08\/what-a-trump-comeback-would-mean-for-south-koreas-reset-with-the-us\/","title":{"rendered":"What a Trump comeback would mean for South Korea\u2019s reset with the US"},"content":{"rendered":"

There are <\/span>growing indicators<\/span><\/a> that former U.S. President Donald Trump will soon announce his candidacy for the 2024 election \u2014 a development that could have profound consequences for future U.S.-South Korea relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Since taking office, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has invested significantly in \u201c<\/span>rebuilding<\/span><\/a>\u201d relations with the U.S., including joining the <\/span>Indo-Pacific Economic Framework <\/span><\/a>(IPEF), enhancing <\/span>cooperation with NATO<\/span><\/a>, discussing the reintroduction of <\/span>U.S. strategic assets<\/span><\/a> to the peninsula and weighing participation in the U.S. <\/span>Chip 4 semiconductor alliance<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

But these efforts have come at the cost of provoking Beijing, which has become increasingly vocal about issues like <\/span>THAAD missile interceptors<\/span><\/a> in South Korea. Amid growing strategic competition between the U.S. and China, Yoon\u2019s decisions have thus not been cost-free and could even come back to bite Seoul in the event of big political changes in the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

And <\/span>with momentum building<\/span><\/a> surrounding a Trump political come-back, many experts warn his hostility toward South Korea and the U.S. alliance could cause chaos for Seoul in the event of an election win in 2024, something that could be possible if Biden\u2019s approval ratings <\/span>remain low<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

POLITICAL RISKS<\/b><\/p>\n

While president, Trump <\/span>allegedly told<\/span><\/a> senior aides that he wanted to \u201cblow up\u201d the U.S.-Korea alliance if reelected, stating that he disliked working with former ROK President Moon Jae-in and describing the South Korean people as \u201c<\/span>terrible<\/span><\/a>,\u201d according to reports.<\/span><\/p>\n

Much of Trump\u2019s disdain for South Korea appears linked to his long-standing grievance that Seoul has been <\/span>free-riding<\/span><\/a> on the security benefits of the alliance by <\/span>not paying its fair share<\/span><\/a> toward the cost of stationing U.S. troops.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe most substantial risk from a return of Trump to the White House would be the end of the alliance and withdrawal of U.S. troops,\u201d said Troy Stangarone, a senior director at the Korea Economic Institute (KEI).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThere are factors that could mitigate Trump taking this course, but this is a much more real possibility under Trump than any president since Jimmy Carter campaigned on withdrawing U.S. troops,\u201d he continued.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Reports indicate that Donald Trump intends to run for president once again in the 2024 election | Image: The White House (2020)<\/p><\/div>\n

Sook Kim, South Korea\u2019s former ambassador to the U.N., said tensions in the alliance could rise if Trump again demands an increase in South Korea\u2019s contribution to the military burden-sharing in the \u201cpreposterous\u201d way he did during his first term.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cKoreans may fear that this kind of nightmare in the field of security repeats if he is elected president again in 2024,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

And Darcie Draudt, a postdoctoral research associate at Princeton University, said that \u201cany issues dealing with formal alliances are at risk because of Trump\u2019s habitual calls to increase cost-sharing of alliance partners.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s approach could force Yoon to choose between saving the alliance at great financial cost, or taking a more independent stance and risking U.S. pullout from South Korea. That decision could have \u201crepercussions in domestic politics,\u201d according to Cho Dong-youn of Seokyeong University, noting that many older voters supported Yoon for his pro-U.S. stance.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stangarone of KEI added Trump could be \u201cless encumbered than he was in his first term\u201d if he fills his team with loyalists instead of professional conservatives who \u201cvalue the U.S. alliance system.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

And \u201cthat could mean a concerted effort to diminish or end the U.S. commitment to the ROK,\u201d\u00a0 according to Doug Bandow of the Cato Institute, something that \u201cwould embarrass the Yoon government if it has relied almost wholly on strengthening the alliance.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Another risk is that Trump will resume diplomacy with Pyongyang while pursuing a more unilateral approach to North Korea policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTrump may want to negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by himself and bypass President Yoon to attract global attention,\u201d said Cho of Seokyeong University, suggesting this would also concern China.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim, the former U.N. ambassador, agreed: \u201cIt’s not hard to imagine that [Trump] may want to capture the world spotlight by re-dramatizing the U.S.-DPRK Singapore Summit and avoid the Hanoi breakup through lowering the goal and accommodating North Korea\u2019s demand.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol toast during Biden’s visit for a bilateral summit in May 2022 | Image: South Korean Presidential Office<\/p><\/div>\n

ECONOMIC COOPERATION<\/b><\/p>\n

Experts disagreed on how a second Trump presidency would impact economic cooperation like IPEF and Seoul\u2019s possible participation in the Chip 4 alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the one hand, some see as many risks as in the political domain.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn 2016, Trump came into office and scrapped a slew of trade initiatives started under the Obama administration,\u201d said Draudt of Princeton. \u201cIf Trump were to run and win in 2024, any trade partnerships or strategic initiatives would be in jeopardy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, some experts said they think Biden\u2019s economic initiatives with South Korea will stand the test of time \u2014 even under Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIPEF and Chip 4 would be the kind of deals Trump would have pursued,\u201d said Go Myong-hyun, a senior research fellow at the Asan Institute, who added that there\u2019s a \u201csurprisingly large overlap\u201d between him and Biden in terms of trade.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cTrump is going to rename Biden’s (economic) initiatives and that will be it,\u201d Go said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stangarone of KEI said Washington\u2019s long-standing friction with China probably means Trump would maintain Biden\u2019s economic policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cA new Trump administration is likely to be tougher on China\u2019s semiconductor industry and to push for semiconductor cooperation among the major players as well,\u201d he said. \u201c(So) it is not a given that Trump would withdraw [from] IPEF or Chip 4.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Bandow of CATO said that with Trump \u201cso susceptible to flattery,\u201d all Yoon would need to do is \u201cconvince Trump that one program or another is really a product of his earlier tenure and he is likely to be hooked.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But regardless of whether Trump would scrap any Biden-era economic agreements, Stangarone said Seoul should not make policy decisions based on those possibilities.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSouth Korea needs to base its foreign policy and economic cooperation on the realities of today rather than the potential U.S. political shifts of tomorrow,\u201d he said, adding that Seoul could find itself disadvantaged if it pursues policies anticipating a Trump presidency and then he\u2019s not elected.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

U.S. and South Korean soldiers. A major risk of a second Trump presidency is the possibility that he could withdraw U.S. troops from the peninsula | Image: South Korean defense ministry (2010)<\/p><\/div>\n

MAJOR RISKS, SOME BENEFITS?<\/b><\/p>\n

On the whole, experts told <\/span>Korea Pro<\/span><\/i> that they anticipate few benefits to South Korea if Trump returns to the White House.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt is hard to see a Trump return as anything but unsettling for Seoul,\u201d said Bandow.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But Go of Asan said the South Korean economy might benefit in such an event.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe upside would be the stabilization of energy prices, thanks to smoother U.S.-Saudi relations, deregulation of U.S. domestic energy production and even some relaxation of sanctions against Russian energy,\u201d he said, policies that \u201ccan only help the South Korean economy\u201d due to its heavy reliance on imported energy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stangarone of KEI said Trump\u2019s rejection of global warming could also help Yoon, whose energy policy would make South Korea heavily reliant on carbon-emitting sources <\/span>for decades to come<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWhile Yoon has committed to maintaining Korea\u2019s 2030 emissions reductions pledge and its pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, a Trump administration that was hostile to these goals could give Yoon space to loosen Korea\u2019s climate commitments if that suited the administration\u2019s domestic agenda,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Personality could also be a factor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI think the personal chemistry between Trump and Yoon could be better than in the previous administration,\u201d said Cho of Seokyeong University.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Bandow agreed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cSimply not being Moon would be an advantage for Yoon,\u201d he said. \u201cTrump had favored Abe over Moon. Both are gone. Given how he emphasizes the personal, Yoon would have a chance to turn that around.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There are growing indicators that former U.S. President Donald Trump will soon announce his candidacy for the 2024 election \u2014 a development that could have profound consequences for future U.S.-South Korea relations. 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