{"id":2198511,"date":"2022-08-24T20:57:26","date_gmt":"2022-08-24T11:57:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2198511"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:11:42","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:11:42","slug":"why-the-next-30-years-of-south-korea-china-ties-wont-be-as-rosy-as-the-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/08\/why-the-next-30-years-of-south-korea-china-ties-wont-be-as-rosy-as-the-last\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the next 30 years of South Korea-China ties won’t be as rosy as the last"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite the well-wishing from South Korea and China to mark the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations, Beijing\u2019s intensifying rivalry with the U.S. looks set to fundamentally limit those ties going forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

On Wednesday evening, leaders Yoon Suk-yeol and Xi Jinping marked the occasion by <\/span>exchanging letters<\/span><\/a> expressing their desires for \u201cnew directions of cooperation\u201d and a \u201csubstantive friendship.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

This reflects the hope for a relationship that has evolved quite significantly over the past few decades: According to <\/span>data<\/span><\/a> from the Korea International Trade Association published just this week, South Korea\u2019s exports to China are a mammoth 160 times greater than they were when the two countries established relations relations \u2014 far greater than the 5.2 and 2.4-fold increases during the same period for the U.S. and Japan, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unfortunately for South Korea, it is increasingly forced to side with its security guarantor at the expense of its largest trading partner.<\/span><\/p>\n

THAAD: RAD OR BAD?<\/b><\/p>\n

The deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (<\/span>THAAD<\/span><\/a>) missile interceptor demonstrates South Korea\u2019s conundrum well.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul initially deployed THAAD five years ago in response to North Korea\u2019s ever-improving missile capabilities, but consequently endured retaliatory <\/span>economic losses<\/span><\/a> from China. Beijing protested that the system\u2019s radar could be used to track its own missile forces, therefore weakening its nuclear deterrent vis-\u00e0-vis Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although the previous Moon Jae-in government convinced China to end the pressure campaign by promising that it wouldn\u2019t deploy any more THAAD batteries, the new Yoon Suk-yeol administration now says that it <\/span>won\u2019t promise anything<\/span><\/a> that compromises its ability to defend itself. This could <\/span>risk<\/span><\/a> another round of Chinese retaliatory measures.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korea and China are at loggerheads over the deployment of THAAD | Image: @USArmy<\/a> (Sept. 10, 2013)<\/p><\/div>\n

TIED UP ON TAIWAN<\/b><\/p>\n

U.S.-China competition surrounding Taiwan also threatens to spill over to South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although Seoul <\/span>tiptoed around this thorny topic<\/span><\/a> during U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi\u2019s recent visit to South Korea, the issue is getting closer to home.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s military exercises in response to Pelosi\u2019s Taipei trip included drills <\/span>near South Korean waters<\/span><\/a>. In response to the exercises, Washington flew a <\/span>U.S. Forces Korea reconnaissance plane<\/span><\/a> from the peninsula to the Taiwan Strait.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Taiwan continues to be a point of contention in U.S.-China relations, South Korea could come under pressure from its ally to further facilitate and cooperate in regional initiatives to protect the \u201crules-based international order\u201d \u2014 or, in other words, keep China in check. This again risks Beijing\u2019s reprisal, this time over a dispute that Seoul might otherwise prefer to sit out quietly in the background.<\/span><\/p>\n

CHIPS AHOY<\/b><\/p>\n

The U.S. is also trying to drag South Korea away from China through the Chip 4 semiconductor alliance. While Seoul maintains that the group isn\u2019t about excluding a \u201c<\/span>certain country<\/span><\/a>,\u201d Beijing certainly doesn\u2019t see things that way.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chinese state media has published <\/span>numerous<\/span><\/a> articles<\/span><\/a> suggesting South Korea would regret joining the chip alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n

While China is aiming to achieve <\/span>70% self-sufficiency in chip production<\/span><\/a> within the next few years, meaning fewer opportunities for South Korea, it currently makes up <\/span>around 60%<\/span><\/a> of South Korea\u2019s semiconductor exports. According to a <\/span>survey<\/span><\/a> of 300 exporters in South Korea by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry last week, 53% of respondents said Seoul should join the group, 41% said it should wait for now and 5% opposed joining.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration is evidently treading lightly. It hasn\u2019t committed to joining the group yet and says it will make a decision following an <\/span>upcoming preliminary meeting<\/span><\/a> based on what best serves its national interests. South Korea will likely try to convince Washington to save as many links with Beijing as possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

South Korea is increasingly forced to side with the U.S. over China | Image: The White House<\/a> (May 21, 2022)<\/p><\/div>\n

THREE NOS AND FIVE REQUESTS<\/b><\/p>\n

China has put forward five requests<\/a> to <\/span>help the two countries avoid issues in the future<\/span>: reject external influence; address each other\u2019s major concerns; maintain stable supply chains; not interfere in the other\u2019s internal affairs; and abide by the principles of the U.N. charter.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, Beijing almost certainly interprets these friendly sounding words in a one-sided way \u2014 ditch the U.S. for Team China. It probably doesn\u2019t mean it will use its leverage to address Seoul\u2019s major concern about North Korea\u2019s missile program, or respect the spirit of the U.N. by properly implementing Security Council sanctions on the Kim regime.<\/span><\/p>\n

These are on top of the \u201cthree nos\u201d Moon promised in 2017 that Yoon now refuses to be bound by: no more THAAD batteries; no participation in a U.S.-led missile defense network; and no trilateral military alliance with the U.S. and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seoul says it won\u2019t compromise its national security by reaffirming this agreement. However, even though it\u2019s <\/span>strengthening<\/span><\/a> ROK-U.S.-Japan military ties and participating in <\/span>multilateral missile tracking drills<\/span><\/a>, it doesn\u2019t seem to have crossed China\u2019s red line yet.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Yoon administration might simply be <\/span>trying to look strong<\/span><\/a> to its conservative political base and the U.S. without actually doing anything that could prompt a Chinese response.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, it has for months now said that it will <\/span>\u201cnormalize\u201d<\/span><\/a> existing THAAD operations and recently announced that it will do so by the <\/span>end of this month<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

China hasn\u2019t retaliated yet, but it might be laying the groundwork. Following a recent ministerial meeting in Qingdao, the Chinese foreign ministry tacked on a \u201crestriction\u201d to the three nos, <\/span>asserting that<\/span><\/a> Seoul previously agreed not only to no more THAAD but to also restrict the use of the batteries that are already on the peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s not quite clear what Beijing will or will not do, but it\u2019s unlikely that the Yoon administration will back down on normalizing current THAAD operations after making such a public commitment.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the years ahead, South Korea will try to convince Beijing to keep thorny military issues and mutually beneficial economic cooperation separate. However, with China striving to realize its superpower destiny, it remains to be seen how well Seoul will be able to do this.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Culture & Society<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite the well-wishing from South Korea and China to mark the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations, Beijing\u2019s intensifying rivalry with the U.S. looks set to fundamentally limit those ties going forward. 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