{"id":2197802,"date":"2022-07-28T19:27:52","date_gmt":"2022-07-28T10:27:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2197802"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:12:07","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:12:07","slug":"mad-about-thaad-south-korea-china-dispute-over-us-missile-interceptor-returns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/07\/mad-about-thaad-south-korea-china-dispute-over-us-missile-interceptor-returns\/","title":{"rendered":"Mad about THAAD: South Korea-China dispute over US missile interceptor returns"},"content":{"rendered":"

A very public back and forth between South Korea and China over the deployment of an American missile defense system erupted this week, sowing the seeds for another dramatic fallout between Seoul and Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

On Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian urged South Korea to stick to the previous government\u2019s promise in 2017 not to deploy any more U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile interceptor systems. At the time, Beijing <\/span>complained<\/span><\/a> that THAAD\u2019s <\/span>radar system<\/span><\/a> could be used to track the movement of China\u2019s missile forces, even though the deployment came in response to North Korean missile threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zhao was responding to South Korean foreign minister Park Jin, who asserted earlier this week that the so-called three nos deal reached in 2017 \u2014 no more THAAD batteries, no participation in a U.S. missile defense network and no ROK-U.S.-Japan trilateral military alliance \u2014 was <\/span>not a formal agreement<\/span><\/a> between Seoul and Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

SHRIMP BETWEEN WHALES<\/b><\/p>\n

The situation encapsulates South Korea\u2019s dilemma as a \u201cshrimp between whales.\u201d As the old adage suggests, when China and the U.S. fight, it\u2019s South Korea that gets caught in the middle.<\/span><\/p>\n

Beijing may well view the THAAD deployment as demonstrating \u201cthe U.S.\u2019s malicious intention to deliberately undermine China\u2019s strategic security.\u201d But Zhao likely raised eyebrows in Seoul when he <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> China\u2019s opposition to the deployment \u201cdoes not target the ROK.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Chinese protests over THAAD are concerning precisely because they have targeted South Korea. Its <\/span>economic boycott<\/span><\/a> in response to the initial deployment in 2017 caused billions of dollars in damage to South Korea\u2019s economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

A few months later, after the Moon Jae-in administration took power from the conservatives, Seoul managed to convince Beijing to end the boycott by agreeing to the three nos.<\/span><\/p>\n

The worry is that China could hit the ROK economy with another upper-cut if the Yoon Suk-yeol administration refuses to abide by his predecessor\u2019s pledge \u2014 especially since Zhao <\/span>made clear<\/span><\/a> that \u201ca commitment made should be a commitment kept despite the change of government.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Yoon has few options but to bolster missile defense and the U.S.-ROK alliance | Image: Office of the 20th President<\/a> (July 5, 2022)<\/p><\/div>\n

However, Yoon has few options but to bolster missile defense and the U.S.-ROK alliance, considering the rapidly evolving threat from North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

U.S.-DPRK and inter-Korean talks have been on ice for years now, and Kim Jong Un appears bent on developing more advanced weapons, including <\/span>tactical nuclear missiles<\/span><\/a>, that could be used to <\/span>target the South<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

From the Yoon administration\u2019s <\/span>perspective<\/span><\/a>, China should focus less on demanding South Korea stick to the three nos and more on playing a \u201cconstructive role\u201d in getting the North to denuclearize. After all, it\u2019s North Korea that prompts South Korea and the U.S. to respond with systems like THAAD in the first place.<\/span><\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t look like there\u2019s much chance of Seoul and Beijing seeing eye to eye on this, though. While Yoon wants to join the U.S. in pressuring Pyongyang through <\/span>sanctions<\/span><\/a>, China is opposing new measures at the U.N., <\/span>insisting<\/span><\/a> that resolving problems on the peninsula requires \u201cabandoning the old approach of imposing sanctions and exerting pressure.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

LOOKING TOUGH<\/b><\/p>\n

Despite the Yoon administration\u2019s stance that it won\u2019t be bound by the three nos, it\u2019s important to note that Seoul hasn\u2019t yet made any moves to deploy more THAAD batteries.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Yoon said Moon\u2019s dealings with China <\/span>undermined South Korean security<\/span><\/a> during the presidential election, his transition team didn\u2019t mention additional THAAD deployments as one of the new government\u2019s 110 \u201c<\/span>state affairs tasks<\/span><\/a>,<\/span>\u201d nor did the administration specifically mention it in its recent <\/span>120 key policy tasks<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

This might mean that the Yoon government\u2019s opposition to the three nos is political rhetoric. During the campaign, Yoon sought to contrast himself with his predecessor Moon, who he <\/span>accused<\/span><\/a> of being soft on China and North Korea, while portraying himself as much more pro-American.<\/span><\/p>\n

In other words, the Yoon administration might be saying that while it won\u2019t be bound by the three nos, that doesn\u2019t necessarily mean it will break them. In this way, Yoon can look tough to the U.S. and his conservative political base, while not actually doing anything that would prompt retaliation from Beijing.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Neither side will make any decisions on the THAAD issue lightly | Image: U.S. Department of Defense Missile Defense Agency<\/a> (Aug. 30, 2019)<\/p><\/div>\n

There also isn\u2019t a <\/span>consensus<\/span><\/a> on whether Seoul needs additional THAAD batteries.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to a recent U.S. Congressional Research Service report<\/a>, the DPRK\u2019s recent progress in missile development suggests it\u2019s trying to figure out ways to get around existing defense systems, including THAAD. Others argue it\u2019s more likely that North Korea would use <\/span>lower-angle, short-range missiles<\/span><\/a> to strike the South, which other parts of its <\/span>layered missile defense system<\/span><\/a> are meant to protect against.<\/span><\/p>\n

On top of this, South Korean defense minister Lee Jong-sup has <\/span>said<\/span><\/a> he would compare the cost-effectiveness of THAAD with the indigenous <\/span>L-SAM II system<\/span><\/a>. If Beijing really views additional THAAD deployment in the context of China-U.S. rivalry, as opposed to South Korean defenses against North Korea, the L-SAM II might be a less antagonistic alternative to the American interceptor system.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the end of the day, a collapse of trade relations doesn\u2019t benefit either side. China does have a lot of leverage as South Korea\u2019s largest trading partner, but economic retaliation would harm Chinese business interests on the peninsula, too.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even though Zhao made clear China\u2019s position on more THAAD batteries, he didn\u2019t directly mention economic countermeasures, meaning that Beijing isn\u2019t restricting itself to any particular course of action.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whatever happens, neither side will make any decisions on this contentious issue lightly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A very public back and forth between South Korea and China over the deployment of an American missile defense system erupted this week, sowing the seeds for another dramatic fallout between Seoul and Beijing. On Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian urged South Korea to stick to the previous government\u2019s promise in 2017 not […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7824,"featured_media":2197803,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24,26,28],"class_list":["post-2197802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nMad about THAAD: South Korea-China dispute over US missile interceptor returns - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/07\/mad-about-thaad-south-korea-china-dispute-over-us-missile-interceptor-returns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mad about THAAD: South Korea-China dispute over US missile interceptor returns - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A very public back and forth between South Korea and China over the deployment of an American missile defense system erupted this week, sowing the seeds for another dramatic fallout between Seoul and Beijing. 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