{"id":2197371,"date":"2022-07-11T19:14:58","date_gmt":"2022-07-11T10:14:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2197371"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:12:11","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:12:11","slug":"south-korea-and-japan-navigate-abes-legacy-as-they-push-to-improve-ties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/07\/south-korea-and-japan-navigate-abes-legacy-as-they-push-to-improve-ties\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea and Japan navigate Abe\u2019s legacy as they push to improve ties"},"content":{"rendered":"

Expressions of condolences poured in from around the world Friday following the shocking news of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe\u2019s assassination while campaigning for parliamentary elections. U.S. leaders praised Abe as a <\/span>champion of democracy<\/span><\/a> and supporter of the <\/span>U.S.-Japan alliance<\/span><\/a>; Hillary Clinton even characterized the conservative politician as a <\/span>feminist<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is no wonder Western allies mourned Abe\u2019s death: As Japan\u2019s longest-serving prime minister, Abe echoed like-minded alliance managers in Washington who wanted Japan to play a<\/span> more forceful military role in East Asia<\/span><\/a>. He is also widely<\/span> credited<\/span><\/a> as one of the founding architects of the Indo-Pacific strategy, aligning Japan more closely with the U.S. against China\u2019s rise and acting as a <\/span>fierce advocate for Taiwan<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

But feelings about Abe\u2019s death were much more complicated in South Korea, where the former leader remains a symbol of Japanese militarism and war crime denialism and was at one point<\/span> less popular<\/span><\/a> than Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.<\/span><\/p>\n

During his first tenure as prime minister in 2007, Abe<\/span> denied<\/span><\/a> that the Japanese government had any responsibility for the forced coercion of 80,000 to 200,000 Korean and Chinese women and girls into sexual slavery for the military. During his second tenure, he also opened a cabinet-level<\/span> investigation<\/span><\/a> into the 1993 Kono Statement apologizing for this so-called comfort women issue, seeking to find out how the statement came about.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2013, he <\/span>posed<\/span><\/a> for a picture next to a training jet emblazoned with \u201c731,\u201d evoking the horrors of <\/span>Unit 731<\/span><\/a> notorious for biological and chemical weapons tests on Korean and Chinese prisoners. And then there were Abe\u2019s<\/span> frequent visits<\/span><\/a> to the Yasukuni Shrine commemorating Japan\u2019s war dead, including 1,068 convicted war criminals, 14 of whom are Class-A war criminals.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this, few in South Korea celebrated his death (unlike some in <\/span>China<\/span><\/a>) because of what comes next.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On the one hand, Abe\u2019s political legacy is poised to live on following his Liberal Democratic Party\u2019s (LDP) victory in the July 10 elections, which gives the party the super majority it needs to push for greater militarization, something Seoul will watch warily.<\/span><\/p>\n

But the end of the election also frees up Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to take more risks to improve ties with South Korea and bolster trilateral cooperation involving the U.S. Abe\u2019s death and the elections thus have the potential to mark a turning point in Seoul-Tokyo ties, for better and for worse.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Shinzo Abe and Donald Trump shaking hands on Feb. 10, 2017. | Image: Wikimedia Commons<\/p><\/div>\n

HARDLINERS ASCENDANT?<\/b><\/p>\n

As expected, the LDP scored<\/span> a sweeping victory<\/span><\/a> in the House of Councillors election. The LDP and its coalition partners won more than 170 seats, crossing the 166-seat threshold needed to push through a revision to Japan\u2019s constitution.<\/span><\/p>\n

This prospect is especially worrying for Seoul because Kishida’s influence could wane as the election took place in the shadow of Abe\u2019s assassination. Hardliners such as<\/span> Takaichi Sanae<\/span><\/a> and<\/span> Hagiuda Koichi<\/span><\/a> could also become more powerful.<\/span><\/p>\n

Experts have <\/span>debated<\/span><\/a> whether the more moderate Kishida genuinely favors reforming the country\u2019s pacifist constitution or merely promised to do so to secure backing from Abe\u2019s allies. But the point may be irrelevant if hardliners grow more powerful, with the constitution\u2019s Article 9 renouncing war firmly in their sights.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abe was also<\/span> a leading voice<\/span><\/a> for Japan to boost defense spending to 2% of its gross domestic product over the next five years to align with NATO, which would make Japan\u2019s annual defense budget the <\/span>third-highest in the world<\/span><\/a> after the U.S. and China. His sudden death could increase public support for LDP hardliners against their moderate coalition allies, namely the <\/span>Komeito Party<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The most alarming aspect of constitutional reform and increased hardliner influence is the possibility of Japan codifying the right to<\/span> preemptively attack enemy bases<\/span><\/a> to defend against imminent attacks. Doing so would open the door for Japan to launch attacks against North Korea someday, increasing the risk of DPRK retaliation against South Korea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Renouncing pacifism could also turn the territorial dispute between South Korea and Japan over the<\/span> sovereignty of the Dokdo islets<\/span><\/a> into a military issue. To date, the two countries have protested each other\u2019s claims to the islets in <\/span>verbal<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>written<\/span><\/a> statements, as well as occasional visits from South Korean politicians<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That could change if the LDP succeeds in amending Japan\u2019s constitution and Seoul perceives a threat to its sovereignty. It could take a herculean effort on Washington\u2019s party to keep both countries calm.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Shinzo Abe bows at a press conference announcing his resignation as prime minister, Aug. 31, 2020 | Image: Prime Minister’s Office of Japan<\/p><\/div>\n

A GOLDEN WINDOW<\/b><\/p>\n

There are upsides to the election\u2019s conclusion though. Tokyo now has a <\/span>three-year period<\/span><\/a> without a major election during which it can improve relations with Seoul.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Upper House election was one reason why Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol didn\u2019t hold <\/span>bilateral talks<\/span><\/a> while in Madrid for the recent<\/span> NATO summit<\/span><\/a>, as the Japanese prime minister was unwilling to give his political opponents ammunition through such a meeting. Kishida is already guilty of being the foreign minister when Japan and South Korea signed a now-defunct comfort women agreement that declared the \u201c<\/span>final and irreversible<\/span><\/a> resolution\u201d of the issue.<\/span><\/p>\n

The election in the rear-view mirror, Kishida now has time to carry out vital but potentially unpopular plans like improving relations with South Korea. And as the leader of the <\/span>moderate Kochikai faction<\/span><\/a>, Kishida could be less shy about showing his true political colors when he reorganizes his cabinet.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kishida will not be able to ignore hardliners amid new security concerns stemming from China\u2019s rise and North Korea\u2019s rapid weapons development. But the prime minister has said that cooperation between South Korea and Japan is \u201c<\/span>needed more than ever<\/span><\/a>,\u201d and even hardliners like Koichi Hagiuda believe it is necessary to<\/span> reset relations<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has been vocal about wanting to improve ties with Tokyo after they hit new lows under his predecessor. Kishida\u2019s ability to balance the competing factions in his coalition could determine whether the two sides make the most of the window of opportunity to do so over the next few years.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Expressions of condolences poured in from around the world Friday following the shocking news of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe\u2019s assassination while campaigning for parliamentary elections. U.S. leaders praised Abe as a champion of democracy and supporter of the U.S.-Japan alliance; Hillary Clinton even characterized the conservative politician as a feminist. It is no […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3665,"featured_media":2197374,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"class_list":["post-2197371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea and Japan navigate Abe\u2019s legacy as they push to improve ties - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/07\/south-korea-and-japan-navigate-abes-legacy-as-they-push-to-improve-ties\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea and Japan navigate Abe\u2019s legacy as they push to improve ties - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Expressions of condolences poured in from around the world Friday following the shocking news of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe\u2019s assassination while campaigning for parliamentary elections. 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