{"id":2196845,"date":"2022-06-15T16:58:35","date_gmt":"2022-06-15T07:58:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2196845"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:12:16","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:12:16","slug":"why-inflation-is-finally-spiking-in-south-korea-months-after-the-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/06\/why-inflation-is-finally-spiking-in-south-korea-months-after-the-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Why inflation is finally spiking in South Korea, months after the US"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korean inflation has been far lower than the U.S. for much of the past 18 months, but it\u2019s now starting to catch up, hitting 5.4% in the month of May.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While inflation in the U.S. has <\/span>resulted<\/span><\/a> from a post-pandemic uptick in demand, South Korea (as well as the Eurozone) is struggling with inflation due to external supply chain issues and price increases connected to the war in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Less excess savings and pent-up demand in South Korea has resulted in a far slower increase in inflation than in the U.S. But now inflation is spiking all the same, increasing the likelihood of recession on the horizon.<\/span><\/p>\n

MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY OVERHANG<\/b><\/p>\n

As the economist Milton Friedman famously <\/span>quipped<\/span><\/a>, \u201cinflation is always everywhere a monetary phenomenon.\u201d Since the start of the pandemic, the supply of money minted by the world\u2019s major central banks has risen dramatically.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The rise was most dramatic in the U.S., where the money supply increased by more than four times. But <\/span>data<\/span><\/a> from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development <\/span>(<\/span>OECD) indicates that even in the Euro area and South Korea, the overall supply of money increased considerably.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The money supply similarly grew after the 2008 financial crisis as a result of <\/span>quantitative easing<\/span><\/a> (QE). But while QE increased the size of money in financial markets and <\/span>bank reserves<\/span><\/a>, it did not directly increase the size of household savings and consumption.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This time around, central bank expansion of the monetary base through the purchase of government debt and other debt instruments (like mortgage-backed securities) also enabled a large fiscal expansion.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Consequently, the U.S. ran a fiscal deficit worth over 15% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 and 12.4% in <\/span>2021<\/span><\/a>, an abnormally large amount. The equivalent figures were 7.1% and 5.1% for the <\/span>Euro Area<\/span><\/a> and just 5.8% and 4.4% for <\/span>South Korea<\/span><\/a> (excluding surpluses due to welfare programs like pensions).<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

The U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C. | Image: Wikimedia Commons<\/a> (CC BY-SA 3.0<\/a>)<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n

INFLATION AND SUPPLY CHAINS<\/b><\/p>\n

In 2020, large fiscal expansion did not immediately result in inflation, as pandemic lockdowns in Europe and the U.S. suppressed both demand and supply for many goods and services. The fall in output was more than matched by a fall in demand, leading to what is termed <\/span>monetary overhang<\/span><\/a> as a result of excessive savings due to lockdowns, with consumers unable to spend money on services like holidays and haircuts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Excess savings in South Korea were <\/span>estimated<\/span><\/a> to total around 3.5% of 2020 nominal GDP, far lower than in the U.S. (around 12-13%) and Euro area (<\/span>around 8%<\/span><\/a>).<\/span><\/p>\n

The decline in spending from 2019 to 2020 was similar in both the U.S. and <\/span>South Korea<\/span><\/a>, but Korean household spending subsequently <\/span>rose<\/span><\/a> (5.5%) by less than half as much as the U.S. (<\/span>12%<\/span><\/a>) from 2020 to 2021. The Euro area <\/span>rebounded<\/span><\/a> by a similar amount to Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the U.S., rampant demand has translated into broad-based inflation and supply chain bottlenecks, as demand for imported consumer durables spiked in the wake of the 2021 recovery. This led to huge increases in <\/span>shipping costs<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>price spikes<\/span><\/a> and shortages of goods.<\/span><\/p>\n

Such trends had much less of an impact on inflation rates in <\/span>Europe<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>South Korea<\/span><\/a> in 2021, indicating that the inflationary pressure in the U.S. was in part a consequence of massive monetary easing and fiscal expansion there.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While Americans are now <\/span>spending<\/span><\/a> their surplus savings, supply chain problems have persisted, and U.S. inflation has consistently outpaced South Korea and the Eurozone since the start of 2021, as OECD data shows.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Source: OECD<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

Korean inflation has begun to pick up in recent months after averaging 3.7% from Dec. 2020-2021. Korean <\/span>data<\/span><\/a> indicates that the major contributors to inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.98 percentage point), transport (1.05 pp), catering and hospitality (0.62 pp) and housing and utilities (0.53 pp).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea is forced to import most of its oil and gas needs, and this explains the rising costs of transport and some utilities: Crude oil prices <\/span>increased<\/span><\/a> by well over 50% in 2021. The country is also highly <\/span>dependent<\/span><\/a> on food imports, and global food prices increased <\/span>considerably<\/span><\/a> in 2021.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In many regards, these 2021 increases were a preview of more dramatic movements in the price of food and fuel that have hit world markets since Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. About 80% of all consumer price rises in South Korea since January have been driven by these four items.<\/span><\/p>\n

Data on <\/span>core inflation<\/span><\/a>, which strips out food and energy, indicates that price rises for other goods and services were far less rapid in South Korea through last year. But since Dec. 2021, the rate has <\/span>exceeded<\/span><\/a> 2%. This implies that the causes of inflation were mostly internal before 2022 and Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Three factors thus appear to be behind South Korea\u2019s inflation: 1) Increasing global demand and supply problems that predate the war in Ukraine; 2) the Ukrainian conflict\u2019s growing impact on the prices of key imports; and 3) the <\/span>impact on Korea<\/span><\/a> of the U.S. tightening monetary policy in response to inflation, which has pushed down the value of the won and increased import costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A gas station in South Korea on July 6, 2020 | Image: Choi Kwang-mo<\/a> via Wikimedia Commons<\/a> (CC0 1.0<\/a>)<\/p><\/div>\n

POLICY SOLUTIONS AND COMING PAIN<\/b><\/p>\n

The Yoon government\u2019s approach seeks to address the foreign origins of inflation hitting the country. This means <\/span>cutting<\/span><\/a> tariffs on pork imports, food oils and vegetables used for animal fodder. The government has also outlined plans to cut the value-added tax on a range of <\/span>condiments<\/span><\/a>. In some cases tariffs can be as high as 20%, so these targeted actions may reduce actual prices by substantial amounts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Previous cuts on fuel duties have failed to stem domestic fuel increases as oil prices have <\/span>risen<\/span><\/a>. The same has also held true for gas prices, which are set to <\/span>rise<\/span><\/a> next month, with electricity prices to rise in September. Transport and housing-related expenses including utilities have been major contributors to inflation this year (around 50%) and are liable to boost inflation further in the coming months.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another source of inflation is the broad spike in global commodities beyond hydrocarbons, cereals and other foods. The prices of many <\/span>metals<\/span><\/a>, for instance, crucial inputs in much of South Korea\u2019s large manufacturing sector, have rocketed over the past year, and this has driven up producer prices.<\/span><\/p>\n

The policies the Yoon government has outlined are unlikely to have a significant effect on producer prices generally, or even fuel prices specifically, given that this is largely captive to foreign supply constraints. If crude oil and gas prices level off, then eventually <\/span>base effects<\/span><\/a> will lead to a slowdown in inflation, but prices do not appear to have peaked <\/span>yet<\/span><\/a> so this could take quite some time.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the price of <\/span>rice<\/span><\/a> is a worry globally, Korea has a highly protected rice market and is <\/span>self-sufficient<\/span><\/a>. Other food prices are at record highs <\/span>globally<\/span><\/a> and could rise further in the coming months if the war in Ukraine continues.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This will further pressure prices and push the Bank of Korea (BOK) to raise interest rates, depressing incomes and consumption. Stagflation \u2014 or an inflation-induced economic slowdown \u2014 appears more and more likely to be the result.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korean inflation has been far lower than the U.S. for much of the past 18 months, but it\u2019s now starting to catch up, hitting 5.4% in the month of May.\u00a0 While inflation in the U.S. has resulted from a post-pandemic uptick in demand, South Korea (as well as the Eurozone) is struggling with inflation […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3665,"featured_media":2196849,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-2196845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy inflation is finally spiking in South Korea, months after the US - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/06\/why-inflation-is-finally-spiking-in-south-korea-months-after-the-us\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why inflation is finally spiking in South Korea, months after the US - 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