{"id":2196641,"date":"2022-06-07T15:51:07","date_gmt":"2022-06-07T06:51:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2196641"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:12:18","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:12:18","slug":"south-koreas-demographic-crisis-could-be-yoon-suk-yeols-biggest-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/06\/south-koreas-demographic-crisis-could-be-yoon-suk-yeols-biggest-challenge\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea\u2019s demographic crisis could be Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s biggest challenge"},"content":{"rendered":"

New South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol sold his razor-thin election win over Lee Jae-myung as a \u201cvictory of the great South Korean people\u201d and has promised to tackle growing economic disparity through deregulation and market-led policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

But Yoon\u2019s lack of policy experience and the difficulties his government faces in fostering post-election unity are cause for concern. Among a laundry list of challenges for the president is South Korea\u2019s rock-bottom birth rate and aging population. Both have negative implications for the country\u2019s economy, demographics and <\/span>security<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The way to solve these seemingly intractable challenges is to develop a two-pronged socially inclusive policy. One part will support Korean women in their choices to work and\/or have families, and the other will encourage low and semi-skilled foreign workers to fill labor gaps in South Korea\u2019s economy. <\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Baby shoes for sale in Seoul, Oct. 2014 | Image: Jeon Han via Republic of Korea Flickr<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

SOUTH KOREA\u2019S BABY PROBLEM<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s demographic crisis has unfolded over decades. As the country shifted from being one of the poorest in the world to one of the richest and most technologically advanced, increased competition and family planning policies reshaped the Korean family.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Post-Korean War, the country\u2019s birth rate was 6.1 children per woman. By the end of the century, this had <\/span>plummeted to 1.6<\/span><\/a>. Indeed, having changed so dramatically and quickly, South Korea is a litmus test for how shrinking demographics will impact post-industrial societies around the world.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To be sure, the developed world is having fewer babies. <\/span>By 2100, 23 countries<\/span><\/a> are likely to have their population drop by half. The impacts of these demographic shifts are likely to be most immediately felt in East Asia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s population of 127 million, for example, is predicted to <\/span>contract over a quarter by 2065<\/span><\/a>. And South Korea, whose population recently peaked at 51 million, will plummet to around 28 million by 2100 if current trends continue.<\/span><\/p>\n

These changes are happening in real time on the Korean Peninsula. In 2020, South Korea\u2019s birth rate <\/span>dropped by 10%<\/span><\/a>. The country recorded a 0.81 <\/span>fertility rate<\/span><\/a> in 2021, the lowest since the government began keeping records over 50 years ago. South Korea\u2019s birth rate has stayed below 1.0 for five straight years, and research suggests this trend will continue. One study found that nearly one in five couples <\/span>married in 2015<\/span><\/a> had no children five years later.<\/span><\/p>\n

This sharp demographic downturn is likely to have serious implications for South Korea\u2019s competitiveness in global markets. In 2020, the working-age population was 37.4 million, 72.1% of the total population. But Seoul forecasts this to <\/span>plummet 17.4 million by 2070<\/span><\/a> \u2014 a 53.5% decrease.<\/span><\/p>\n

The country\u2019s super-low birth rate is already undermining the country’s <\/span>national defense<\/span><\/a>. In 1999, some <\/span>347,700 men were eligible<\/span><\/a> for mandatory military service. In 2020, this number decreased to 222,400, making it difficult for Seoul to maintain a large standing and reserve army.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Considering that only 139,362 male infants were <\/span>born in 2020<\/span><\/a>, this challenge is only going to worsen. It poses a significant threat to a government managing North Korea’s conventional and nuclear threats.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Bags of medicinal herbs hang in an old home in South Korea, Feb. 2015 | Image: Jeon Han via Republic of Korea Flickr<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

TREATING SYMPTOMS<\/b><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, tried addressing South Korea\u2019s demographic cliff in a few ways. He <\/span>extended the length <\/span><\/a>of temporary work permits for foreigners, allowed international students to work in a greater variety of industries and introduced <\/span>cash payments<\/span><\/a> for new parents.<\/span><\/p>\n

But his administration did nothing to reform the country\u2019s problematic <\/span>Employment Permit System<\/span><\/a> or make South Korea a more inclusive and inviting place to live for <\/span>non-Koreans<\/span><\/a>. Nor did child support policies make an impact where it most matters for South Korean parents: the rising costs of education, housing and living; enduring misogyny over gender and labor roles in the home and the workforce; and the reality that women are still being <\/span>forced to choose<\/span><\/a> between having a career or having children.<\/span><\/p>\n

If his statements are a window into his policies, Yoon Suk-yeol will only make South Korea a more challenging place for women, immigrants and parents. On the campaign trail, Yoon said he would crack down on Chinese nationals supposedly <\/span>taking advantage<\/span><\/a> of South Korean health care \u2014 a problem he said leaves hardworking South Koreans in the lurch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Candidate Yoon, on multiple occasions, promised to abolish the <\/span>Ministry of Gender Equality and Family<\/span><\/a>, the department charged with planning and coordinating gender-related policies and preventing domestic and sexual violence, among other tasks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pushing back against South Korea\u2019s #MeToo movement, Yoon has also vowed to <\/span>raise the penalty<\/span><\/a> for falsely reporting sex crimes. Activists say this will discourage <\/span>victims<\/span><\/a> from coming forward.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, Yoon unveiled a proposal to give new parents about $800 (<\/span>1 million won<\/span><\/a>) a month for the first year of a child\u2019s life, and pledged to increase maternity and paternity leave as well as expand state child care services.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But these policy incentives are just short-term fixes, lacking in both fiscal and practical details. Experts have <\/span>already warned<\/span><\/a> that South Korea\u2019s government can\u2019t spend its way out of the demographic crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korea\u2019s rock-bottom birth rate and hyper-aging population require both winning the confidence of Korean women with pragmatic policy making and encouraging lower-skilled migrant workers to fill gaps in the labor market, particularly in agricultural, textiles, manufacturing and domestic work.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon promised national unity for the Korean people. But uniting an electorate so bitterly divided will take more than lip service. Winning back alienated demographics and steering South Korea back from the abyss may be the biggest challenge of Yoon’s presidency.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Culture & Society<\/span><\/a>Domestic Politics<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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