{"id":2196400,"date":"2022-05-30T19:59:01","date_gmt":"2022-05-30T10:59:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2196400"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:12:20","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:12:20","slug":"the-korea-discount-why-south-koreas-stock-market-is-so-underpriced","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/05\/the-korea-discount-why-south-koreas-stock-market-is-so-underpriced\/","title":{"rendered":"The Korea discount: Why South Korea\u2019s stock market is so underpriced"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is no secret that South Korea\u2019s stock market is underpriced. The world is in the middle of a big equity sell-off, but foreign and Korean investors have <\/span>fled<\/span><\/a> the Korean stock market more rapidly than other countries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The total value of all shares traded on the Korea Exchange is <\/span>lower<\/span><\/a> relative to total earnings (profits) and book value (total assets) than most other countries in the <\/span>Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (<\/span>OECD) and most other emerging markets.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

South Korean securities have some disadvantages relative to European, American or Japanese stocks, as the country\u2019s currency is more volatile and the market is thinner (fewer trades, traders and less capital available). But this doesn\u2019t explain why its stock market would trade so poorly compared to even smaller markets with currencies of similar or lower status. There are also industry and firm-specific effects, with <\/span>banks<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>non-conglomerates<\/span><\/a> more heavily discounted.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The problem is so long-standing that there is a term for it \u2014 the Korea discount. Observers attribute this to several Korea-specific factors: (1) geopolitical risks associated with North Korea, (2) the diversification of conglomerates into unrelated markets and (3) poor shareholder rights.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The third factor appears to be the most important overall given available data, but heavy discounts for South Korean banks also suggests that poor growth prospects for the country overall, which will hit bank earnings, will start to exert downward pressure on stock values.<\/span><\/p>\n

GEOPOLITICAL RISK<\/b><\/p>\n

With North Korea right next door, it is not surprising that some analysts have wondered whether there might be a connection between the North Korean threat, including missile and nuclear tests, and the value of the South Korean stock market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Recent research <\/span>indicates<\/span><\/a> that nuclear tests have short-term, negative effects on the value of non-defense South Korean share prices, though these effects were on average small (less than 1%). Older research indicates that changes in inter-Korean relations do not seem to <\/span>impact<\/span><\/a> patterns of foreign investment in South Korean stocks.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Measuring the threat from North Korea is complex. Nuclear tests may be the most visible manifestation, but other forms of risk associated with North Korean threats and provocations have been <\/span>found<\/span><\/a> to raise Korean stock market volatility, and the informational advantage that South Korean investors enjoy also translates into <\/span>higher returns<\/span><\/a>. Specific stocks also <\/span>react<\/span><\/a> differently to positive North Korea-related news, with defense stocks shedding value and stocks in firms related to inter-Korean cooperation projects <\/span>rising<\/span><\/a> during periods of summitry.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The literature on geopolitical risk and its impact on Korean stocks points to real, short-term effects, but it does little to directly explain why Samsung Electronics\u2019 stock is worth about one-third that of Apple by price-to-earnings ratio.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Some analysts have posited that risks from North Korean missile and nuclear tests drive down the price of South Korean stocks | Image: Rodong Sinmun (Oct. 20, 2021)<\/p><\/div>\n

THE DIVERSIFICATION DISCOUNT<\/b><\/p>\n

Once upon a time on Wall Street, industrial firms expanded by diversifying the markets they were involved in. In the 1960s, there was what was called a \u201c<\/span>conglomerate boom<\/span><\/a>\u201d in which large firms sought to grow by entering unrelated industries and markets, as antitrust regulation made it difficult to grow through vertical integration or by buying out competitors.<\/span><\/p>\n

This craze didn\u2019t last long, however, because the costs of megamergers rose as interest rates climbed, and managers struggled to control the conglomerates\u2019 vast economic empires. Subsidiaries were spun off, and markets pushed businesses to focus on their core capacities. Recent research <\/span>indicates<\/span><\/a> that unrelated diversification has become less popular over time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this, South Korea\u2019s economy remains largely dominated by chaebol, large family-run conglomerates that can be involved in everything from automobiles and shipbuilding to construction and insurance. These firms grew during the second half of the 20th century, an era in South Korea of rapid economic growth, government <\/span>control<\/span><\/a> of credit allocation, <\/span>financial repression<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>credit rationing<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A so-called conglomerate premium can exist under such circumstances. Due to underdeveloped capital markets, it\u2019s more expensive to borrow and issue stock than it is to create larger business groups, which can more easily move around cash internally to finance new ventures.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are advantages that come with size as well, such as greater <\/span>political influence<\/span><\/a> \u2014 and thus power \u2014 in a fast-developing and authoritarian state. Diversification into unrelated product markets allows firms to hedge against risk, particularly in poorer countries with more volatile markets and greater risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Research suggests conglomerate premiums in <\/span>poorer countries<\/span><\/a> become conglomerate discounts <\/span>as those countries become wealthier<\/span><\/a>, as has happened in South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet even if chaebol and diversification were major drivers of the discount in the past, research indicates they <\/span>no longer are<\/span><\/a>, though for some types of <\/span>holding companies<\/span><\/a> they may still be important. Moving into <\/span>related markets<\/span><\/a> remains a profitable venture for South Korean conglomerates.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Samsung Shipbuilding’s shipyard in the Gohyun Bay on Oct. 26, 2010. South Korean conglomerates can manage businesses ranging from smartphones and household appliances to container ships. | Image: Wikimedia Commons<\/a> (CC BY-SA 3.0<\/a>)<\/p><\/div>\n

SHAREHOLDER RIGHTS<\/b><\/p>\n

Nowadays, one of the major concerns of foreign and domestic investors in the Korean equities market is the treatment of small shareholders.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Given the discount on the value of stock, one might expect that the country\u2019s firms would pay high dividends to entice more investors, but compared to <\/span>other<\/span><\/a> major stock markets, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) is only around the <\/span>middle<\/span><\/a> of the pack. Korean firms far less often engage in shareholder <\/span>buybacks<\/span><\/a> too, a favorite of shareholders because it boosts the value of their equity.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A major issue shareholders face is with how companies are allowed to create <\/span>spinoffs<\/span><\/a> \u2014 new firms out of divisions in existing firms \u2014 without compensating shareholders. One recent example is when LG Chemicals decided to <\/span>spin off its battery business<\/span><\/a>, which hurt the company\u2019s share price. These tactics are not unique to conglomerates: The tech company Kakao, which is not a chaebol, has engaged in similar, controversial spinoffs .\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Small shareholder rights were the subject of discussions during the recent presidential election, with <\/span>both<\/span><\/a> candidates <\/span>pledging<\/span><\/a> to strengthen the rights of smaller shareholders in spinoff-related financial activities.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

THE BANKING DISCOUNT<\/b><\/p>\n

An interesting phenomenon is that the Korea discount is perhaps <\/span>most pronounced<\/span><\/a> for financial firms.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Financial conglomerates <\/span>generally<\/span><\/a> trade at a discount compared to banks specializing in retail, wholesale or investment banking, and South Korea\u2019s largest banks are <\/span>diversified<\/span><\/a>. There is a diversification discount and a Korea-specific financial firm discount at work here.<\/span><\/p>\n

This has been put down to problems in the governance of banks, organizational culture and regulation. But another possibility is also that poor long-term growth prospects may be exerting downward pressure on stock values.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is a bit unclear, however, why Korean banks are so heavily discounted even compared to their non-financial, industrial peers on the stock market.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is no secret that South Korea\u2019s stock market is underpriced. The world is in the middle of a big equity sell-off, but foreign and Korean investors have fled the Korean stock market more rapidly than other countries.\u00a0 The total value of all shares traded on the Korea Exchange is lower relative to total earnings […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3665,"featured_media":2196398,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24],"class_list":["post-2196400","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Korea discount: Why South Korea\u2019s stock market is so underpriced - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/05\/the-korea-discount-why-south-koreas-stock-market-is-so-underpriced\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Korea discount: Why South Korea\u2019s stock market is so underpriced - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It is no secret that South Korea\u2019s stock market is underpriced. 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