{"id":2196359,"date":"2022-05-26T14:00:44","date_gmt":"2022-05-26T05:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2196359"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:12:21","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:12:21","slug":"tactical-nuclear-weapons-wont-fix-south-koreas-security-concerns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/05\/tactical-nuclear-weapons-wont-fix-south-koreas-security-concerns\/","title":{"rendered":"Tactical nuclear weapons won\u2019t fix South Korea\u2019s security concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"

North Korea\u2019s spate of missile tests since the start of the year and the increasing likelihood that Pyongyang will conduct a seventh nuclear test have given added impetus to South Korea\u2019s nuclear debate. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and associated nuclear threats against the U.S. have also compounded concerns among South Korean policymakers about the country\u2019s vulnerability to nuclear coercion by Kim Jong Un.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In response to these threats, a <\/span>consistent majority<\/span><\/a> of the South Korean public favors acquiring nuclear weapons. It is now <\/span>commonplace<\/span><\/a> to hear calls from South Korean politicians, experts and commentators for U.S. deployment of low-yield \u201ctactical\u201d nuclear weapons (TNW) or a \u201csharing\u201d arrangement in which South Korean aircraft and pilots would be equipped to deliver U.S. nuclear weapons during a conflict.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Proponents of nuclear sharing or deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea, such as retired <\/span>Lieutenant General Chun In-bum<\/span><\/a>, argue they would establish symmetry of capability and a balance of terror with North Korea that would eventually lead both sides to accept mutual restraint.<\/span><\/p>\n

But given that North Korea developed nuclear weapons to balance growing economic and military power asymmetries with South Korea, a nuclear deployment in the South is likely to add fuel to arms racing rather than temper it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Not only would TNWs in South Korea end a 30-year <\/span>denuclearization norm<\/span><\/a> on the Korean Peninsula, it would also exacerbate Kim Jong Un\u2019s fears of a decapitation strike by Seoul. In a state without broadly repressive control of its population and economy, the prospect of an arms race might force a leader to accept restraint. North Korean leaders, however, have demonstrated a propensity to place nuclear development far above any other state priority, including economic growth and social stability.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Kim Jong Un is unlikely to capitulate in an arms race, despite South Korea\u2019s considerable economic and technological advantages.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"US

The South Korean military tests a Hyunmoo-II missile | Image: Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (Sept. 2017)<\/p><\/div>\n

DETERRENCE GAPS<\/b><\/p>\n

Another argument in favor of deploying TNWs in the South is that it would close any deterrence gaps that Kim Jong Un might perceive. <\/span>Deployed or shared TNWs in South Korea presumably would increase the probability of a nuclear response to any North Korean nuclear use.<\/span><\/p>\n

Certainly, North Korea is seeking to decouple the ROK-U.S. alliance through an ability to strike the U.S. with nuclear weapons. Yet one of North Korea\u2019s likely motivations for developing nuclear weapons in general and <\/span>tactical nuclear weapons<\/span><\/a> specifically is to offset the qualitative military imbalance it faces with South Korea and the ROK-U.S. alliance.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In other words, for Kim Jong Un, tactical nuclear weapons are intended to lower the threshold of nuclear use to close perceived space for South Korean conventional military operations \u2014 a defensive purpose.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There are fears that Kim may seek to use his burgeoning nuclear arsenal as a shield to enable conventional military or other coercive operations against South Korea \u2014 as Russia has done in Ukraine. Unlike Russia, however, North Korea is the weaker military power and its ability to sustain conventional military operations against South Korea, let alone a major invasion, while keeping the U.S. out of the fight is questionable.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps TNW deployed in the South would better deter North Korea from risking such an operation, but the small marginal deterrence gains are unlikely to be worth the risks and costs.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"South

South Korea’s underwater test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile on Sept. 15, 2021 | Image: South Korean defense ministry<\/p><\/div>\n

PREEMPTING PREEMPTION<\/b><\/p>\n

A third claim about the need for a TNW deployment relates to the challenges of preemption and conflict escalation: North Korea could preempt South Korea\u2019s nuclear preemption strategy. Deterring such a counterforce attack requires the capability to \u201cdeliver a [nuclear] response within 1-3 minutes, not 45 minutes or a couple of hours,\u201d <\/span>Chun claims<\/span><\/a>, intimating that other U.S. low-yield nuclear weapons are not sufficiently prompt.<\/span><\/p>\n

There is no question that North Korea\u2019s nuclear and conventional strike capabilities are fearsome and could in a conflict cause serious damage to South Korean military assets. But TNWs deployed in the South would be more vulnerable to early North Korean attacks, as opposed to those more securely deployed on U.S. nuclear missile submarines loitering in the Pacific or flown by U.S. bombers. (The U.S. possesses other low-yield nuclear weapons that provide \u201cprompt\u201d options in a conflict.)\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Rather than facing pressures to use these nuclear weapons early in a conflict or else risk losing them to North Korean attacks, it is better for South Korea and the U.S. to maintain better escalation management options with nuclear weapons off the peninsula. And for Kim Jong Un, facing a nuclear response in a few minutes or a few tens of minutes seems unlikely to make a significant difference to his risk calculus.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If the North Korean leader had already decided to use nuclear weapons, he would factor in the probability of a U.S. nuclear response in his calculus, including <\/span>Washington\u2019s promise<\/span><\/a> that \u201cany North Korean nuclear attack against the U.S. or its allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of that regime.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Observers in Washington wonder how much influence the views of Chun and other TNW proponents will have on the new administration of President Yoon Suk-yeol. <\/span>Some officials<\/span><\/a> in the new government have also advanced these ideas.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"US-ROK

U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol on May 21, 2022 | Image: ROK Presidential Office<\/p><\/div>\n

It is notable that during the campaign, Yoon at first indicated he would <\/span>request U.S. deployment<\/span><\/a> of tactical nuclear weapons and nuclear sharing if South Korea\u2019s national security is threatened by North Korea. His campaign subsequently <\/span>walked back this pledge<\/span><\/a>, stating that Yoon believes that deploying nuclear weapons would violate South Korea\u2019s commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.<\/span><\/p>\n

During the <\/span>ROK-U.S. summit<\/span><\/a> last week, Presidents Yoon and Biden \u201creaffirm[ed] the commitment of the U.S. to deploy strategic U.S. military assets in a timely and coordinated manner as necessary, as well as to enhance such measures and identify new or additional steps to reinforce deterrence in the face of DPRK destabilizing activities.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This statement perhaps satisfies assurance requirements for now, but likely papers over the differences within the Yoon administration on whether and under what conditions to pursue a TNW option.\u00a0 <\/span>For its part, the U.S. government mostly has eschewed public comment on this issue, though one <\/span>U.S. official stated<\/span><\/a> in Sept. 2021 that \u201cU.S. policy would not support [TNW deployment or nuclear sharing.]\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Deterring North Korean nuclear coercion is a growing challenge for South Korea and the U.S. Strengthening alliance cohesiveness such that Kim Jong Un\u2019s nuclear threats do not decouple Seoul and Washington is paramount. Yet there are better and less dangerous near-term <\/span>options to deter<\/span><\/a> North Korean nuclear coercion than deploying TNW in South Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Arius Derr<\/em><\/p>\n

Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

North Korea\u2019s spate of missile tests since the start of the year and the increasing likelihood that Pyongyang will conduct a seventh nuclear test have given added impetus to South Korea\u2019s nuclear debate. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and associated nuclear threats against the U.S. have also compounded concerns among South Korean policymakers about the country\u2019s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3665,"featured_media":2196372,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[26,28],"yoast_head":"\nTactical nuclear weapons won\u2019t fix South Korea\u2019s security concerns - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/05\/tactical-nuclear-weapons-wont-fix-south-koreas-security-concerns\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tactical nuclear weapons won\u2019t fix South Korea\u2019s security concerns - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"North Korea\u2019s spate of missile tests since the start of the year and the increasing likelihood that Pyongyang will conduct a seventh nuclear test have given added impetus to South Korea\u2019s nuclear debate. 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