{"id":2195985,"date":"2022-05-05T17:24:38","date_gmt":"2022-05-05T08:24:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2195985"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:12:25","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:12:25","slug":"south-korea-japan-ties-will-improve-under-yoon-but-not-as-much-as-us-wants","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/05\/south-korea-japan-ties-will-improve-under-yoon-but-not-as-much-as-us-wants\/","title":{"rendered":"South Korea-Japan ties will improve under Yoon, but not as much as US wants"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has vowed to resuscitate relations with Japan, but colonial-era animosity threatens to continue to fundamentally undermine U.S. efforts to get its Asian allies on the same page.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to his <\/span>foreign policy platform<\/span><\/a>, Yoon will not only rebuild ties with Tokyo but will do so with \u201csweeping solutions to all pending problems\u201d based on a \u201ccorrect understanding of history\u201d and Korean sovereignty. However, this is akin to Yoon having his cake and eating it too: History and sovereignty are precisely what poisoned relations over the last five years under Moon Jae-in\u2019s Democratic government.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon may well gloss over these issues, asserting in a <\/span>recent interview<\/span><\/a> that \u201cdragging the decades-old colonial rule back onto the table hurts the bilateral relationship between South Korea and Japan.\u201d He also sent a <\/span>pre-inauguration delegation<\/span><\/a> to meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in April and discussed these issues, demonstrating the two governments\u2019 desire to move forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

For its part, Tokyo wants to <\/span>\u201cturn back the clock\u201d<\/span><\/a> to 2015, referencing the year of a <\/span>controversial deal<\/span><\/a> for a \u201cfinal and irrevocable resolution\u201d on the issue of Korean women and girls forced into sexual slavery by the Japanese military. The Yoon camp has already <\/span>reaffirmed<\/span><\/a> the agreement but more strongly emphasizes returning to the South Korea and Japan\u2019s <\/span>1998 joint declaration<\/span><\/a>, which vaguely called for both peoples to \u201cdeepen their understanding of history\u201d \u2014 a sentiment much more palatable to the Korean audience.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet as Yoon\u2019s conservative predecessors <\/span>learned the hard way<\/span><\/a>, South Korean presidents ignore the public\u2019s grievances with Japan at their peril. And Yoon doesn\u2019t have much room to play with, considering that he only won March\u2019s presidential election by the <\/span>slimmest of margins<\/span><\/a> and the Democratic Party controls parliament until at least 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the president-elect has shown he\u2019s not afraid of <\/span>pushing through public opposition<\/span><\/a> to his plans, the U.S. can only hope for so much when it comes to reconciling its two Northeast Asian allies. Unless there\u2019s a tectonic shift in Seoul\u2019s position on Japan\u2019s imperial past and disputed territory \u2014 about as likely as Korea recognizing <\/span>Chinese claims to kimchi<\/span><\/a> \u2014 the U.S. will struggle to fully bring them together to cooperate on threats in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

A South Korean boat near the Dokdo Islets | \ub300\ud55c\ubbfc\uad6d \uad6d\uad70 Republic of Korea Armed Forces<\/a> (Aug. 14, 2015)<\/p><\/div>\n

SECURITY FRENEMIES<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea and Japan clearly have common ground to work with vis-\u00e0-vis China and North Korea. But military cooperation with Japan ultimately has its limits because Seoul is reluctant to allow its former colonizer to be too involved with the peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

For now, Yoon\u2019s push to improve security coordination means he\u2019s less likely to scrap existing security arrangements if relations with Tokyo do turn sour, as Moon Jae-in almost did when he threatened to end the two sides\u2019 <\/span>military information-sharing agreement<\/span><\/a> in 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s also been talk over the past few years about South Korea and Japan joining the <\/span>Five Eyes intelligence pact<\/span><\/a>, and Yoon is <\/span>pushing<\/span><\/a> for greater involvement with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, not everything is so rosy. While Yoon asserted that Moon\u2019s <\/span>security concessions<\/span><\/a> to China in 2017 \u2014 including a promise not to create a U.S.-ROK-Japan military alliance \u2014 <\/span>\u201cundercut South Korea\u2019s sovereign right to protect its people,\u201d<\/span><\/a> the president-elect\u2019s team has <\/span>already ruled out<\/span><\/a> holding joint military exercises in waters off the peninsula.<\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, South Korea occasionally conducts <\/span>military drills around the Dok islets<\/span><\/a>. Tokyo also claims this territory, making it no mystery to whom Seoul is trying to send a message. In this context, Japan is a rival, not a partner.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington\u2019s vision for a coordinated approach to security in the region is also undermined by Seoul\u2019s <\/span>opposition<\/span><\/a> to Japan\u2019s membership in U.N. Command (UNC), the military organization that oversees the Korean War armistice and which would come to South Korea\u2019s aid in the event of another war. This is despite Japan serving as the base for <\/span>UNC Rear<\/span><\/a>, which is responsible for facilitating sending state contributions in the event of another conflict.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Yoon Suk-yeol, pictured on the campaign trail delivering a speech in Nov. 2021, faces many hurdles to improving relations with Tokyo | Image: Yoon Suk-yeol presidential campaign team<\/p><\/div>\n

THE TRADE-OFF<\/b><\/p>\n

South Korea and Japan have room to expand their trade ties, and many companies appear to be optimistic about prospects under Yoon\u2019s leadership, judging from the results of a <\/span>recent survey<\/span><\/a> by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI).<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, Seoul and Tokyo effectively entered their first free trade arrangement with South Korea\u2019s entry into the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership <\/span>(RCEP)<\/span><\/a> in February and its recent decision to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership <\/span>(CPTPP)<\/span><\/a>. Bilateral exchange will also increase as the region gradually <\/span>emerges<\/span><\/a> from the COVID-19 pandemic, presenting greater opportunities for business and other exchanges.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the past few years have shown that colonial-era issues can damage economic trade as well as security relations. Although it denies this, Japan\u2019s <\/span>trade restrictions<\/span><\/a> \u2014 notably on <\/span>chemicals used for semiconductors<\/span><\/a>, crucial for some of South Korea\u2019s biggest tech companies \u2014 are widely seen as retaliation for a 2018 South Korean court ruling ordering Mitsubishi to compensate wartime forced laborers and their families.<\/span><\/p>\n

From Japan\u2019s point of view, these issues were <\/span>settled in 1965<\/span><\/a>, when the two countries established formal diplomatic relations. But the court\u2019s ruling means that South Korean individuals and their families can take their colonial-era grievances to court and seek compensation, and Yoon has little leeway to counteract the court\u2019s decision without infringing upon the principle of separation of powers.<\/span><\/p>\n

If he intends to untangle this mess, Yoon\u2019s going to need to pull off some political wizardry in order to satisfy Japan, the courts and the plaintiffs \u2014 who have the sympathy of the South Korean electorate.<\/span><\/p>\n

And of course, there\u2019s always the threat that <\/span>other disputes<\/span><\/a> over colonial-era matters could crop up to make life more difficult for him further down the line during his tenure.<\/span><\/p>\n

EASIER SAID THAN DONE<\/b><\/p>\n

At the end of the day, Tokyo wants Seoul to put the past behind it by honoring previous agreements. But South Korea wants Japan to behave <\/span>more like Germany<\/span><\/a> when it comes to its facing its own history.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This means more top-level displays of remorse, amending <\/span>school textbooks<\/span><\/a> to better educate students about Japan\u2019s colonial atrocities, stopping visits to the controversial <\/span>Yasukuni Shrine<\/span><\/a> and dropping its claims to Dokdo \u2014 none of which is likely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, it seems that Yoon could modestly improve the relationship. And anything less turbulent than the past few years would be something of a win for the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

Going forward, look out for the results of the Japanese foreign minister\u2019s trip to <\/span>Yoon\u2019s inauguration<\/span><\/a> on May 10, the <\/span>U.S.-ROK summit<\/span><\/a> on May 21 and how Yoon and Kishida will respond to <\/span>South Korean court rulings<\/span><\/a> on colonial-era forced labor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Business & Economy<\/span><\/a>Defense & Security<\/span><\/a>Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has vowed to resuscitate relations with Japan, but colonial-era animosity threatens to continue to fundamentally undermine U.S. efforts to get its Asian allies on the same page. According to his foreign policy platform, Yoon will not only rebuild ties with Tokyo but will do so with \u201csweeping solutions to all […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3665,"featured_media":2195989,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[24,26,28],"class_list":["post-2195985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-business-economy","tag-defense-security","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Korea-Japan ties will improve under Yoon, but not as much as US wants - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/05\/south-korea-japan-ties-will-improve-under-yoon-but-not-as-much-as-us-wants\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"South Korea-Japan ties will improve under Yoon, but not as much as US wants - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol has vowed to resuscitate relations with Japan, but colonial-era animosity threatens to continue to fundamentally undermine U.S. efforts to get its Asian allies on the same page. 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