{"id":2195960,"date":"2022-05-04T19:35:51","date_gmt":"2022-05-04T10:35:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nknews.org\/pro\/?p=2195960"},"modified":"2023-04-05T16:12:26","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T07:12:26","slug":"the-rocky-shoals-on-which-yoon-suk-yeols-foreign-policy-could-shipwreck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/05\/the-rocky-shoals-on-which-yoon-suk-yeols-foreign-policy-could-shipwreck\/","title":{"rendered":"The rocky shoals on which Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s foreign policy could shipwreck"},"content":{"rendered":"

In less than a week, Yoon Suk-yeol will be sworn in as South Korea\u2019s next president, entering at a time when the country faces a daunting array of foreign policy challenges \u2014 from navigating U.S.-China tensions to repairing ties with Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet it\u2019s essential to remember that the incoming leader has never held political office and remains untested as a diplomat. That lack of experience is a cause for concern, even though he has so far surrounded himself with seasoned political veterans and knowledgeable experts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The world has seen people inexperienced in foreign policy suddenly thrust into leadership before, such as former South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and former U.S. President Donald Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon has already shown his greenness in some early statements and overtures toward China, Japan and North Korea. While opportunities abound, he risks being tossed around if he cannot carefully steer South Korea through the troubled foreign policy waters ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n

FORTIFYING THE \u201cIRONCLAD\u201d ALLIANCE<\/b><\/p>\n

No other country in the world is likely as excited about Yoon\u2019s incoming presidency as the U.S., with the president-elect calling for bolstering ties.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In an <\/span>op-ed<\/span><\/a> that Yoon penned for <\/span>Foreign Affairs <\/span><\/i>before the election, Yoon explicitly eschewed President Moon Jae-in\u2019s \u201cThree-No\u2019s\u201d pledge to Chinese leader Xi Jinping \u2014 no additional deployments of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile interceptors, no participation in a U.S. missile defense network and no establishment of a trilateral military alliance with the U.S. and Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, Yoon has called for improving trilateral security coordination with Washington and Tokyo, and he appears more willing to go along with the U.S. <\/span>desire<\/span><\/a> for South Korea to play a more prominent role in the Indo-Pacific through forums like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad. His support for easing economic sanctions only if Pyongyang takes verifiable and irreversible steps toward denuclearization also puts South Korea and the U.S. on the same page.<\/span><\/p>\n

But not everything will be smooth sailing between Seoul and Washington. The biggest issue that requires attention is computer chips and semiconductors.<\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. President Joe Biden <\/span>announced<\/span><\/a> that the U.S. will invest $50 billion in infrastructure to protect its semiconductor supply chain. While a multinational agreement involving both U.S. and South Korean parties would benefit all involved, some of <\/span>the Biden administration\u2019s requests<\/span><\/a> for South Korean companies to share what they consider sensitive trade secrets have left them <\/span>in a bind<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the Biden administration has not been overly insistent on the matter, it is likely to revisit the issue, and this will put Yoon in an awkward position. While he seeks to improve ties with the U.S., he will also need to safeguard South Korean companies\u2019 financial interests.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

Image: Japan Air Self-Defense Force<\/a>, Japan Wave texture vector created by rawpixel.com- Freepik<\/a>, edited by Korea Pro<\/p><\/div>\n

JAPAN: FRIEND OR FOE?<\/b><\/p>\n

One of Moon\u2019s first acts after entering office was to throw cold water on ties with Tokyo by <\/span>stating<\/span><\/a> that a 2015 agreement on Japan\u2019s wartime enslavement of Korean women did not resolve the issue, leading the supposedly \u201c<\/span>final and irreversible<\/span><\/a>\u201d resolution to unravel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bilateral relations have <\/span>further<\/span><\/a> deteriorated<\/span><\/a> since then, but Yoon\u2019s inauguration provides an opportunity for a soft reset. The present-elect kicked things off on April 24 by <\/span>sending a delegation<\/span><\/a> to Japan for policy consultations on North Korea and other issues, showing his seriousness by <\/span>staffing<\/span><\/a> it with seasoned experts.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Japanese government is likely optimistic about improving relations with South Korea. After all, Yoon\u2019s <\/span>comment<\/span><\/a> about forming \u201ca future-oriented partnership based on a correct perspective toward history\u201d sounds more flexible than Moon. And his foreign minister pick Park Jin said the 2015 comfort women agreement was \u201c<\/span>official<\/span><\/a>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But Yoon will likely face domestic backlash for his call for closer ties with Tokyo. While one <\/span>survey<\/span><\/a> found that China overtook Japan as the country South Koreans like the least, Japan is not far behind and <\/span>ranks<\/span><\/a> only slightly more favorably than North Korea.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Yoon won the presidential race by a <\/span>razor-thin margin<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>faces<\/span><\/a> a <\/span>slew<\/span><\/a> of <\/span>other challenges<\/span><\/a> and must govern with the opposition <\/span>in control<\/span><\/a> of the National Assembly until at least 2024, he may not have the political capital to improve ties with Japan.<\/span><\/p>\n

ANTI-CHINA RHETORIC MEETS REALITY<\/b><\/p>\n

Over the past few years, Moon has been careful to avoid upsetting Beijing, fearing <\/span>Chinese retaliation<\/span><\/a> like during the <\/span>THAAD dispute<\/span><\/a> and desiring China\u2019s support for inter-Korean engagement.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon has promised to take a different tack. Riding <\/span>a wave of anti-Chinese sentiment<\/span><\/a> among South Korean voters, Yoon did not hesitate to call for a more assertive stance toward its much larger neighbor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Against the backdrop of increasing competition between the U.S. and China, Yoon\u2019s rhetoric is likely a cause for concern among Beijing\u2019s political elites. But so far they have held their cards close to their chests: In a <\/span>congratulatory letter<\/span><\/a> to Yoon, Chinese leader Xi Jinping called South Korea \u201can important cooperation partner\u201d and said he seeks to \u201cpromote the stable and long-term development of the China-South Korea strategic cooperative partnership relationship.\u201d Yoon responded that he\u2019s \u201ccertain South Korea-China relations will develop further.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Indeed, despite Yoon\u2019s rhetoric on the campaign trail, South Korea is not in any position to be overly antagonistic toward China. While Moon\u2019s deference to Beijing has done little to tame North Korea\u2019s continued <\/span>expansion of its nuclear arsenal<\/span><\/a>, South Korea\u2019s <\/span>economic and social troubles<\/span><\/a> mean Seoul can ill afford to rock the boat with its biggest economic trading partner.<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s also no guarantee that bolstering ties with the U.S. will be a panacea for South Korea\u2019s problems. The Trump administration showed many Americans support <\/span>protectionist trade policies<\/span><\/a>, and with Biden\u2019s <\/span>worsening<\/span><\/a> poll numbers, Republicans may soon <\/span>return to power<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In light of this, Yoon\u2019s rhetoric against China appears to be the result of political inexperience. When confronted with political realities on the ground, his options will be more limited than he probably realizes, and he will likely continue Moon\u2019s more quiet policies of <\/span>diversifying economic partnerships<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>building up South Korea\u2019s military<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

North Koreans walking through the snow, May. 2010 | Image: Eric Lafforgue<\/p><\/div>\n

AN INTER-KOREAN WINTER<\/b><\/p>\n

Among all of South Korea\u2019s diplomatic relations, those with North Korea are the most predictable. Even during Moon\u2019s tenure, the DPRK <\/span>refused to cooperate<\/span><\/a> once it became evident that Moon could not convince the U.S. to lift <\/span>economic sanctions<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the U.S. and South Korea restarting <\/span>joint military drills<\/span><\/a> in earnest, North Korea has <\/span>responded<\/span><\/a> with its signature bellicosity, even as it <\/span>pushes forward<\/span><\/a> its <\/span>weapons development<\/span><\/a> and makes no secret of plans to send <\/span>satellites into orbit<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, South Korea has also made immense progress in acquiring and developing weapons, developing <\/span>advanced missiles<\/span><\/a>, a <\/span>4.5-generation fighter jet<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>submarines<\/span><\/a> that can launch ballistic missiles.<\/span><\/p>\n

In response to all this, Yoon said during the campaign that he would ask the U.S. to <\/span>redeploy tactical nuclear weapons<\/span><\/a> in South Korea. He also pushed for the U.S. to <\/span>deploy other strategic assets<\/span><\/a> in and around South Korea, such as strategic bombers, aircraft carriers and submarines, that support the U.S. nuclear umbrella.<\/span><\/p>\n

All this is to say that inter-Korean relations will be chilly for the next five years, and there\u2019s even a distinct possibility that North Korea could conduct its seventh nuclear test early in Yoon\u2019s presidency. <\/span><\/p>\n

Yoon\u2019s penchant for making off-the-cuff remarks about sensitive subjects, such as preemptive strikes, could prove dangerous given how the Korean Peninsula has become a powder keg.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edited by Bryan Betts<\/em><\/p>\n

Inter-Korean & Foreign Relations<\/span><\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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Yet it\u2019s essential to remember that the incoming leader has never held political office […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3665,"featured_media":2195961,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[28],"class_list":["post-2195960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-inter-korean-foreign-relations"],"yoast_head":"\nThe rocky shoals on which Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s foreign policy could shipwreck - KOREA PRO<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/koreapro.org\/2022\/05\/the-rocky-shoals-on-which-yoon-suk-yeols-foreign-policy-could-shipwreck\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The rocky shoals on which Yoon Suk-yeol\u2019s foreign policy could shipwreck - KOREA PRO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In less than a week, Yoon Suk-yeol will be sworn in as South Korea\u2019s next president, entering at a time when the country faces a daunting array of foreign policy challenges \u2014 from navigating U.S.-China tensions to repairing ties with Japan. 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