An online petition demanding the impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has garnered over 1.17 million signatures, sparking heated speculation about his removal from office. However, Korea Pro’s analysis of legal precedents and the National Assembly Act reveals that impeachment remains highly unlikely in the near future.

The main opposition Democratic Party (DP) quickly seized upon the petition’s popularity, vowing to bring the issue to actual parliamentary discussion and setting a goal of reaching 10 million petitioners.

However, the DP remains cautious about aggressively pursuing impeachment, likely recognizing the legal challenges of justifying an impeachment proposal without reasonable evidence of illegal or unconstitutional activities by the president.

Despite the current unlikelihood of impeachment or even the proposal of an impeachment bill, the issue is expected to dominate South Korea’s domestic news cycle until at least July 20, when the petition expires.

The National Assembly’s online petition website showing a waitlisted number of access | Image: National Assembly Website

LIMITATIONS OF PETITIONS

The current petition demanding Yoon’s impeachment marks the first time such a petition has exceeded the 50,000-signature threshold required to advance the request to the Petition Review Subcommittee of the Standing Committee.

If the subcommittee deems the petition justifiable, it can forward it to the Legislation and Judiciary Committee or directly to the general assembly’s main plenary session, as per the National Assembly Act.

However, initiating an impeachment motion requires the support of a majority of lawmakers, and passing the proposal bill necessitates a two-thirds majority, or 200 out of 300 lawmakers, before sending it to the Constitutional Court.

Although the DP holds more than half of the seats, enabling them to initiate the motion, it is unlikely to pass the plenary session. The DP and allied opposition parties hold only 191 seats. Gaining the additional nine votes needed from the ruling People Power Party (PPP) is highly improbable.

Initiating an impeachment motion is challenging. It requires evidence and other relevant materials substantiating the claim of the president’s grave breach of law and the Constitution from the motioning stage. Currently, there is insufficient evidence to support such accusations. 

The petitioner cited five reasons for impeachment:

1. Suspicion about Yoon’s interference in the investigation of a marine’s death last year, 
2. Suspicion of bribery and stock manipulation involving Yoon and his family, 
3. Escalation of tension and the possibility of war between the two Koreas, 
4. A pro-Japanese stance on the forced labor issue, 
5. Allowing the discharge of contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean. 

However, these allegations remain unproven or politically biased, making it difficult for the DP to use them as a basis for initiating an impeachment motion, despite the petition’s number of signatures.

The list of currently running petitions on the National Assembly website | Image: National Assembly, edited by Korea Pro

DIFFERENCES WITH PAST PRECEDENTS

The National Assembly passed impeachment motions against two former South Korean presidents: Roh Moo-hyun in March 2004 and Park Geun-hye in Dec. 2016. However, only the latter case resulted in a successful impeachment by the Constitutional Court, leading to Park’s removal from office and subsequent investigations that ultimately led to her imprisonment.

During Roh’s presidency, there was no online petition system, and opposition lawmakers holding a majority in parliament initiated the impeachment process. Voters did not call for Roh’s impeachment. The Constitutional Court dismissed the proposal in May 2004, allowing Roh to resume his duties after a 63-day suspension.

The court acknowledged Roh’s violation of election law and potential constitutional violation through his statement about holding a referendum on his presidency. However, it deemed these infractions insufficient grounds for impeachment. 

Similarly, the court did not consider economic mismanagement and corruption suspicions among Roh’s associates as valid reasons for impeachment.

These precedents could apply to Yoon if the DP pushes for the proposal at this time.

Roh Moo-hyun (left) and Park Geun-hye (right) | Images: ROK Presidential Archive

In contrast, while the online parliamentary petition system still did not exist, public opinion played a significant role in initiating impeachment discussions against Park. 

Widespread media coverage and online discussions about Park’s illicit collaboration with business figures and a close friend linked to shamanism significantly influenced public sentiment. Moreover, media investigations uncovered clear evidence of illegal and unconstitutional activities, facilitating the initiation of the impeachment motion in the National Assembly. 

The motion against Park passed with 234 votes in favor and 56 against, indicating substantial defections from her own party. 

Such defections are highly unlikely in Yoon’s case. Unlike in Park’s case, PPP lawmakers have yet to show any signs of an urgent need to abandon ship.

The seat number for the DP (blue) and the PPP (red) | Image: National Assembly

WHAT’S NEXT?

At this point, impeaching Yoon appears nearly impossible. However, if substantial evidence of serious unconstitutional or illegal activities surfaces in the next few years, it could alter the opposition party’s calculations. 

Even if an impeachment motion fails to pass the Constitutional Court, merely initiating the process would create significant political turbulence, influence the public’s opinion of the ruling party and pose a serious threat to Yoon’s reputation for the remainder of his term, hamstringing his policy initiatives.

The DP is unlikely to pursue impeachment for the time being. Instead, it will utilize the public’s sentiment and sensational media headlines to justify pushing for a special investigation bill into the marine death case, which Yoon already once vetoed and may yet do so again. 

However, the opposition will likely keep the impeachment proposal bill and use it when Yoon’s term nears its end, aiming to mobilize public sentiment for the next presidential election and undermine the ruling party’s legitimacy.

“This petition demands the impeachment of the president, but it requires political judgment. Impeaching a president requires significant public support. We will observe the petition’s progress until its deadline and make a careful decision,” said DP floor leader Park Chan-dae.

For now, the petition has only succeeded in delaying the National Assembly from carrying out its normal functions. The 22nd National Assembly’s opening ceremony, scheduled for Friday, has been postponed due to the president and the PPP’s boycott, with dim prospects of cooperation.

Edited by John Lee